DANGEROUS DOWNSLIDE
Where are we headed as the world falls back on environment, health and hunger goals on the 2030 deadlines?
Climate change is here to stay; we see it daily in rising summer heat waves, cloudbursts inundating cities and expanding coastlines threatening coastal populations globally. Appropriately, it has grabbed significant attention across media, research, academia, and scientific innovations. Several international treaties have further reinforced global commitment towards managing this significant risk.
A Roadmap of Global Efforts
The United Nations has long been committed to addressing climate change and reversing its effects. In 2015, a historic agreement was reached at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).Known as the Paris Agreement, this accord aimed to strengthen the global response to climate change by keeping the rise in global temperatures this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and striving to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
At the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) held in 2022, the landmark achievement was the establishment of the “loss and damage” fund, designed to aid vulnerable countries suffering severe damage from climate disasters.COP27 also resulted in the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan. This plan underscores that transitioning to a low-carbon economy will require annual investments of $4 trillion to $6 trillion. Achieving such funding necessitates a swift and comprehensive overhaul of the global financial system's structures and processes.
The Paris Agreement's objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is achievable only if global emissions decrease by 45 per cent by 2030, reaching true net zero by 2050. Achieving net zero by 2050 means transforming global production, consumption, and transportation systems to eliminate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
However, the world is not on track to meet the net zero target by 2050. According to the U.N., the national climate plans of the 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement predict an almost 11 per cent increase in GHG emissions by 2030 relative to 2010 levels, indicating a regression.
To correct this course, the U.N. introduced the Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26, which aims to "complete the Paris rulebook" by continuing to drive action in four key areas:Mitigation: reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Adaptation: providing support to those affected by climate change, Finance: ensuring countries have the funds needed to achieve their climate goals and Collaboration: promoting global cooperation to combat climate change.
A Yawing Gap
“2023 has shown all too clearly that climate change is here. Record temperatures are scorching the land and heating the sea, as extreme weather causes havoc around the globe. While we know this is just the beginning, the global response is falling far short. Meanwhile, halfway to the 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the world is woefully off-track,” says UN Secretary-General António Guterres.“Groundbreaking scientific and technological advances, such as high-resolution climate modelling, artificial intelligence and nowcasting, can catalyse transformation to achieve the SDGs. And achieving Early Warnings for All by 2027 will not only save lives and livelihoods but also help safeguard sustainable development,” he comments.
The annual funding gap for the SDGs has increased dramatically, from $2.5 trillion before the pandemic to an estimated $4.2 trillion. Governments are struggling with overwhelming debt, especially in developing countries with high borrowing costs. Currently, 52 nations are in or near default, with no effective debt relief system in place.
The scientific evidence is clear at the midway point of the 2030 Agenda: the planet is significantly off track from meeting its climate goals. This failure undermines global efforts to combat hunger, poverty, and ill-health and to improve access to clean water and energy, among other aspects of sustainable development, as reported in a new multi-agency study coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The "United in Science" report reveals that only 15 per cent of the Sustainable Development Goals are on track. It systematically examines the impact of climate change and extreme weather on these goals, illustrating how advancements in weather, climate, and water-related sciences can promote food and water security, clean energy, better health, sustainable oceans, and resilient cities.
The report illustrates how weather predictions enhance food production, moving us closer to eliminating hunger. We can better understand and anticipate climate-sensitive diseases by integrating epidemiology and climate information. Early-warning systems mitigate poverty by enabling people to prepare and reduce impacts.
The urgency for science and solutions has never been greater.From 1970 to 2021, nearly 12,000 reported weather, climate, and water-related disasters caused over 2 million deaths and $4.3 trillion in economic losses. Over 90 per cent of these deaths and 60 per cent of economic losses occurred in developing economies, hindering sustainable development.
Rising global temperatures have led to more extreme weather. There is a 66 per cent chance that the annual mean global near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years, a likelihood that is increasing over time.
Progress in reducing the emissions gap for 2030 has been minimal. Despite promises, fossil fuel CO2 emissions increased by 1 per cent globally in 2022 compared to 2021, with preliminary estimates for January-June 2023 showing a further 0.3% rise.
To meet the Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to well below 2°C, ideally, 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 30 per cent and 45 per cent by 2030, with CO2 emissions approaching net zero by 2050. This necessitates rapid, large-scale, and systemic transformations.Some future climate changes are unavoidable and potentially irreversible, but every fraction of a degree and ton of CO2 matters for limiting global warming and achieving the SDGs.
The report concludes that the world is not on track to achieve any of the 17 SDGs and cannot rely on organic change. By 2030, 575 million people are expected to live in extreme poverty, 600 million will face hunger, and 84 million children and young people will be out of school. The world is set to overshoot the Paris climate goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. Gender equality might only be achieved in 300 years, with most SDGs potentially realised by 2050.
What Has Gone Wrong?
Several factors have hampered progress, including the COVID-19 pandemic, cost-of-living crises, armed conflicts, and natural disasters. The pandemic diverted development funds to mass vaccination, healthcare infrastructure, and support for vulnerable populations, pushing 97 million people into extreme poverty. Economic activities were disrupted, requiring considerable fiscal support to restart.
The cost-of-living crisis, high inflation rates, and pandemic-induced fiscal strain disrupted progress towards the SDGs. High debt levels in many countries further constrained efforts to extend social protection to the poor.
Armed conflicts and the rising cost of natural disasters, estimated at $303 billion in 2022, also impeded progress. By 2020, around 2 billion people lived in conflict-affected countries, and global military expenditure exceeded $2 trillion for the first time in 2021. Approximately 26.5 million people in the Sahel region faced a food and nutrition crisis between March and May 2022.
Countries' contributions to climate change can be measured in two main ways: total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GHG emissions per capita. The top three contributors in total emissions are China: 12.7 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), the United States: 6 billion MtCO2e and India: 3.4 billion MtCO2e. Given that these are the three most populous countries, their overall emissions are significantly high. However, when examining per capita emissions (emissions per person), the top emitters are quite different:Qatar: 35.59 metric tons per capita, Bahrain: 26.66 metric tons per capita, Kuwait: 24.97 metric tons per capita, and the United States ranks 12th in per capita emissions.
The Way Ahead
Nordic countries continue to lead in SDG achievement, while BRICS countries are showing some progress. However, least developed nations are falling further behind, with the gap widening significantly since 2015. Significant investment in public goods that transcend national borders is required to achieve sustainable development.
The Paris Agreement mandates that participating countries achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While many countries lag, some are ahead of schedule. Notably, three countries are already carbon-negative, removing more carbon from the atmosphere than they emit:Bhutan (South Asia), Suriname (South America) and Panama.
Additionally, five countries have achieved net-zero emissions, including Comoros, Gabon, Guyana, Madagascar and Niue. These countries are often smaller, less industrialised, and have extensive forests that act as carbon sinks.Furthermore, six countries have set net-zero target dates earlier than 2050, including Uruguay: 2030, Finland: 2035, Austria: 2040, Iceland: 2040, Germany: 2045, and Sweden: 2045.
Accelerating action and systemic transformation are key to achieving the SDGs. There are six transformation points: human well-being and capabilities, sustainable and just economies, sustainable food systems and nutrition, energy decarbonisation with universal access, urban and peri-urban development, and global environmental commons.
These shifts involve scaling up investment in primary healthcare, ensuring access to life-saving interventions, accelerating secondary school and girls' enrolment, increasing water and sanitation infrastructure investment, shifting to healthier and diversified diets, reducing food waste, deploying renewables, phasing out fossil fuels by 2030, and promoting a circular economy with waste recycling. It calls for expanding protected areas, abandoning intensive agriculture, restoring degraded forests, economising water use, and relying on nature-based solutions.
There is a pressing need for a major overhaul of the global financial architecture to support sustainable development. New broad strategies to address financing shortfalls are needed, which include new institutions, global taxation schemes, and a shift in investment priorities.
Assessment
With
just 15% of the Sustainable Development Goals on track
, the picture is indeed dismal.
Since 2015, the situation has deteriorated on targets such as achieving food security, increasing vaccine coverage, ensuring sustainable economic growth, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
It is amply clear
that much more is required to be done before the SDGs get back on track.
The need for scientific advancements and solutions is more urgent than ever.
The overall downslide in
global
peace
has only exacerbated an already grim solution further.
With a decline in funding adversely impacting funding for climate change,
we need a renewed impetus for science and technology to save the
day.
Mobilising political leadership, building societal consensus for policy shifts, addressing governance deficits, fostering behavioural changes, and increasing science-policy-society interactions are critical for achieving the SDGs.
