Strategic Shadows: India, China & Pakistan
The triangular dynamics that shape the relations between India, China, Pakistan mould strategic interests in South Asia.
(Lt Gen G A V Reddy,AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd), Chief Strategic Officer, Synergia Foundation.
Former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff and DGDIA.)
The India-China-Pakistan triangle is bogged down in a convoluted history of unresolved border disputes, with sporadic military confrontations between India and China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and India and Pakistan at the Line of Control (LoC). Today, both capabilities and intentions play a significant role in shaping perceptions and distorted views within the India-Pakistan-China triangle.
India-China-Pakistan: Conundrum.
The India-China-Pakistan triangle is determined by relative national power and mutual threat perceptions, complicated by the growing confrontation between the U.S. and China. Pakistan remains the most steadfast ally of China in India’s neighbourhood, while India remains the only country in the region that comes closest to competing with growing Chinese influence.
The power asymmetry between India and Pakistan in the former’s favour, and the increasing power imbalance between India and China in the latter’s favour reinforces the inherent security dilemma of the triangle, strengthening China-Pakistan collusion, in order to checkmate India’s rise in the region.
The Chinese perceptions of a U.S. containment strategy that involves India also impacts the triangle. The mistrust and zero-sum perceptions in the triangle will continue to determine the probability of crises and conflict playing out at the LAC and LoC.
India’s Strategic Perspectives: India is strategically positioning itself to enhance its geopolitical stature and balance global power dynamics, while Pakistan prioritises geo-economic strategies and managing alliances with major powers to uphold regional stability and security. India is increasingly acknowledged as a pivotal actor in global geopolitics, particularly within the Indo-Pacific region. Its strategic significance is underscored by strengthened partnerships with the United States, as well as deepening engagements with the QUAD and ASEAN.
Despite growing alignment with the U.S., India continues to uphold a robust partnership with Russia while navigating the complexities posed by China’s expanding influence in South Asia. Concerns persist regarding China’s increasing military presence and economic leverage in the region, particularly through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Furthermore, the unresolved Kashmir issue remains a core concern for India, reinforcing its commitment to safeguarding territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Beijing’s Global Strategic Framework: China seeks to expand its influence across Eurasia while avoiding direct confrontation with the United States. This strategy involves leveraging economic integration and fostering strategic partnerships to shape a favourable geopolitical landscape, thereby reinforcing its position as a major regional power. To counterbalance India’s influence in South Asia, China actively engages in military diplomacy, establishing strategic military footprints in countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives to safeguard its security interests.
The Maritime Silk Route (MSR), a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), underscores China’s focus on enhancing maritime connectivity. This initiative aims to secure vital sea lanes and establish strategic bases across South Asia and Southeast Asia, strengthening China’s presence in these critical regions.
China emphasises the importance of managing military escalation and developing sound strategic approaches to effectively handle potential crises. This is viewed as essential for maintaining regional stability and advancing its broader strategic objectives.
Concurrently, China is prioritising technological advancement, striving for global market dominance, and addressing domestic challenges related to economic self-reliance and environmental sustainability.
Pakistan’s Strategic Insights: Pakistan is shifting its focus towards geo-economic strategies, aiming to become a regional trade and transit hub. This involves leveraging its strategic location and partnerships to enhance economic security. Pakistan’s alliance with China is crucial for its security and economic development. CPEC is a cornerstone of this partnership, providing significant economic benefits and strategic leverage against India. Pakistan is trying to balance its relationships with the U.S. and China, ensuring it does not antagonise either power while maintaining economic ties with China and diplomatic engagement with the U.S. Pakistan faces security challenges from its western border with Afghanistan.
Distinct Doctrines & Differing Strategic Calculus
The strategic doctrines of India, China, and Pakistan reflect their distinct historical, political, and military contexts. India’s doctrine focuses on conventional superiority and nuclear deterrence with a No First Use (NFU) policy, while China maintains a no-first-use policy for nuclear weapons, emphasising deterrence rather than offensive use, aligned with its national security and development goals.
Pakistan relies on full spectrum deterrence, proxy warfare and strategic alliances to counter India’s military advantages. The nuclear doctrines and strategic calculus of India, China and Pakistan are shaped by their unique geopolitical contexts and security concerns.
India’s Strategic Doctrine: India has traditionally adhered to a NFU policy for nuclear weapons, although there have been recent indications of reconsideration. This policy emphasizes the use of nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack. India focuses on maintaining conventional military superiority over Pakistan, leveraging its larger military budget and personnel strength to deter aggression. India aims to deter Pakistan through a strategy of denial, making it difficult for Pakistan to achieve its military objectives in a conflict. India seeks to isolate Pakistan internationally, particularly by highlighting Pakistan’s support for terrorism, and to use economic leverage to pressure Pakistan into changing its behaviour.
China’s Strategic Approach: China’s strategic objectives are characterised by a blend of active defence, limited war capabilities, and a focus on deterrence, all aimed at supporting its national development and security goals. China maintains a no-first-use policy for nuclear weapons, emphasising deterrence rather than offensive use. This policy is central to its strategic doctrine, though there are ongoing debates about its flexibility in crisis scenarios. China’s doctrine includes concepts like “strategic frontier” and “strategic deterrence,” highlighting the importance of securing its periphery and deterring potential adversaries through advanced military capabilities. The doctrine is aligned with its national security and development goals, aiming to safeguard sovereignty, security, and development interests. This includes protecting territorial integrity and maritime rights.
Pakistan’s Strategic focus: Pakistan emphasises a full spectrum deterrence strategy, which includes both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. This approach is designed to counter India’s conventional superiority. Unlike India, Pakistan does not have a NFU policy for nuclear weapons. This posture allows for the potential use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks. Pakistan has historically employed proxy forces, such as militant groups, to exert pressure on India, particularly in Kashmir.
Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China provides it with significant diplomatic and military support, helping to counterbalance India’s influence in the region.
Role of International Opinion: International opinion plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the India-Pakistan-China conundrum by influencing diplomatic engagements, economic alignments and strategic partnerships. It emphasises the need for peaceful resolution of disputes, transparency and cooperation to ensure regional stability.
However, the complex web of alliances and rivalries in the region continues to pose significant challenges to achieve these goals.
India and China Engagement.
The issue that complicates the India-China relationship is the dilemma of maintaining economic interdependence versus strategic decoupling. Despite the tense relationship, China overtook the U.S. in 2024 to once again become India’s largest trading partner. By prioritising the U.S., is India risking achieving limited returns while losing access to China’s economic and technological opportunities? This highlights the Indian challenges of balancing competing partnerships in an increasingly polarised global order.
Geopolitical Rivalry: Both countries are engaged in a strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region, with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and India’s efforts to counterbalance Chinese influence.
Border Disputes: The unresolved border disputes, particularly along the LAC, remain a major point of contention. The clashes in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh have highlighted the volatility of the situation. The deadly clash in the Galwan Valley resulted in significant casualties on both sides and severely strained relations.
China-Pakistan Nexus: China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), adds complexity to India-China relations.
Economic Ties and Trade Imbalance: Despite tensions, China is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $125 billion in 2024. However, India’s trade deficit with China remains a significant concern. Indian restrictions on Chinese investments due to security concerns, are complicating economic relations.
Diplomatic Efforts: Efforts to improve relations include the resumption of direct air services, cultural exchanges and the 75th Anniversary of diplomatic relations. Both countries are marking this milestone with renewed diplomatic efforts, aiming to stabilise relations despite historical mistrust.
India and Pakistan Legacy.
India and Pakistan have a complex and largely hostile relationship, rooted in historical events of partition leading to massive displacement and violence, setting the stage for ongoing tensions between the two nations. The complexities of India-Pakistan relations are deeply intertwined with the role of external players and their strategic perspectives in the geopolitical context. External powers have always played a significant role in shaping India-Pakistan relations. During the Cold War, both the U.S. and Soviet Union vied for influence in the region.
Pakistan aligned with the U.S. to counterbalance India’s growing power, while India sought Soviet support. The U.S. provided military aid to Pakistan, which emboldened it to initiate conflicts with India, such as the 1965 war. In the current geopolitical landscape, several factors continue to influence India-Pakistan relations.
The Kashmir issue is central to ongoing tensions: Actions by the Indian government, such as revocation of Articles 370 and 35A in Kashmir have exacerbated tensions. The Kashmir lobby within Pakistan ensures that any normalisation efforts are conditioned on progress regarding Kashmir, making it difficult for the government to pursue unconditional dialogue with India. Pakistan still continues to support and conduct terrorist attacks in India, particularly in Kashmir. The unwillingness of Pakistan to effectively curb militant activities is a major concern for India.
The rise of China has introduced new dynamics: Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, exemplified by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), complicates India’s security calculus.
The CPEC is a key economic initiative for Pakistan, while India seeks to enhance its economic presence in the region through other means. The construction of dams by India on rivers shared with Pakistan has raised concerns about water security, fearing that India could control water flows, adding to the anxiety of Pakistan, about the Indus Waters Treaty.
Pakistan’s domestic politics contribute to the persistence of tensions: Pakistan’s political landscape is often characterized by instability and coalition governments. In Pakistan, the military plays a significant role in shaping foreign policy, particularly regarding Kashmir.
The fear of being seen as weak on India or Kashmir makes governments adopt a more hawkish stance. Political leaders in Pakistan also use the India-Pakistan relationship as a domestic political narrative to garner support.
Nuclear capabilities of India and Pakistan raise the stakes in any conflict and vitiate the atmosphere in the entire region. The presence of nuclear weapons has made the disputes more dangerous and complex. The nuclear dimension adds a layer of unpredictability and risk to the relations.
Synergia Takeaways:
• Given the complexities, prospects for normalisation of ties between India, China and Pakistan remain challenging.
• The India-China-Pakistan triangle, reinforced by the role of the U.S. in the region, makes it imperative for conflict to be managed rather than eliminated.
• Occasional diplomatic manoeuvres and confidence building measures are inadequate to arrest uncontrolled escalation inadvertent conflicts in the triangle.
