Securing strategic chokepoints

SECURING STRATEGIC CHOKEPOINTS

The Red Sea has become a chokepoint endangering global trade from Suez to the Bab El Mandeb.

Veer Puri

29/11/2024

Global trade is held hostage by four maritime choke points through where more than 50 per cent of global maritime trade is threatened by disruption: Straits of Hormuz, Malacca Straits, Panama Canal and the Suez Canal and Bab El-Mandeb Strait. While all are equally relevant, the subject of this article is the Red Sea choke points, the shortest route between Europe and Asia, carrying over 12 per cent of global maritime trade. Its importance has been made painfully clear since the beginning of the Gaza war. Houthi attacks on international shipping sincelate 2023, over 500 container vessels have already been reroutedaround the Cape of Good Hope, adding between 9 and 17 days to the transit time and shipping costs.

This multifaceted crisis, now entering its second year, has exposed the fragmentation of the current global order and the challenges in coordinating an effective international response. The situation has far-reaching implications for global trade, regional stability, and international security. It is an interlinked security theatre encompassing the Horn of Africa, the Western Indian Ocean, and the Mediterranean.

The Houthis are the key players supported behind the scenes by Iran. So far, despite major naval forces from the U.S. and UK deployed in the Red Sea, they have largely been unsuccessful in ensuring incident-free freedom of navigation in the region. While impoverished nations like Yemen and Somalia will face the brunt of the exacerbated humanitarian difficulties that the conflict will bring upon them, even richer GCC governments are not spared from its impact, putting their ambitious diversification plans into hiatus.

A Critical Seaway

Bab El-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canalfacilitate the flow of commodities and energy resources between the East and the West. The Suez Canal normally handles about 1 million barrels of crude oil daily and over 30 per cent of all container traffic worldwide. The Red Sea is responsible for almost 15 per cent of the world's seaborne traffic, including 8 per cent of the world's grain trade, 12 per cent of its oil trade, and 8 per cent of its liquefied natural gas trade.

It is impossible to exaggerate the significance of the Red Sea for energy security. About 9.2 million barrels of oil daily, or 9 per cent of the world's total consumption, went through the Suez Canal in the first half of 2023. As the Ever Given event in 2021 showed, any interruption to this flow can have serious economic repercussions, with estimates indicating daily trade losses of up to $9 billion.

Any conflict here is centred around geopolitical contestation at global and regional scales. With perennially dysfunctional and fractured nations like Yemen and Somalia at the mouth of the choke point, it is hardly surprising that external forces use them as trojan horses to force their own agenda. Of even greater concern is when the international rule of law collapses, non-state actors immediately flow into the vacuum to harvest the vulnerability of unarmed merchant traffic loaded with rich pickings. Therefore, it is not surprising as Houthis started lobbing drones and missiles at merchant ships transiting the Red Sea, at its southern end, Somali and other pirates became active highjacking ships for ransom.

As the oil pumps of the world, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations have substantial wealth waiting for investments. With an estimated $11 billion in capital investments in Africa in 2016, the UAE became the top GCC investor in the continent, demonstrating these nations' growing interest in Africa as a major region for trade and economic growth.The construction of ports and other infrastructure along the Red Sea coast is thought to be a calculated attempt to strengthen the GCC states' standing as major international trading hubs and take advantage of the expanding Asian trade flows to Africa. However, this prosperity has its dark side as it acts as a red flag for their poorer but more extremist neighbours who see this all as ill-gotten wealth being enjoyed by the Western Kafir world.

A War Zone

The Red Sea has become as much of a war zone as Gaza. Using a variety of delivery systems, even an ill-organised low-tech force such as the Houthis has been able to paralyse international shipping, rendering an international naval armada ineffective in preventing attacks on tankers and merchant ships. Al Shabaab, operating from its strongholds along the Somalian coastline, has been synchronising its forays against merchant ships in international waters. The revenue being generated through millions of dollars of ransom money extracted from shipping companies is funding new weapons and technologies finding its way into the alliance. Houthi fighters, in one case, used helicopters to land on a lumbering vessel carrying cargo worth millions of dollars without firing a shot.

These multi-domain nature of the challenges makes regional security extremely difficult. The Houthis have used a wide range of strategies, including ship hijacking, drone attacks, and rockets. Thankfully, they have not yet gotten their hands on sea mines, or else the situation would have been almost impossible to manage. Understandably, for allied nations led by the U.S., the shortcomings of conventional deterrence tactics have been made clear by these complex threats. The unending political dysfunction in Yemen and Somalia makes it impossible to negotiate a ceasefire or peace deal. Since there are few military or economic targets to force the Houthis or Al Shabaab to come to the negotiating table, the overwhelming firepower available to EUNAVFOR ASPEDES (the EU military operation in response to Houthi engagements with international shipping in the Red Sea) is of little value. With the Houthis exploiting the Red Sea as a theatre to further their domestic and regional goals, Yemen's internal strife has had a major impact on the region. In Somalia, the fight against al-Shabaab is still ongoing, and despite government efforts to quell the insurgency, the group continues to hold sway over large rural areas.

Strategic Response

The international community has taken a multifaceted response to the Red Sea situation, integrating diplomatic efforts, military actions, and capacity-building programs. UN resolutions, such as Resolution 2216 under Chapter 7, have established a foundation for international action.Saudi Arabia is assisting the Yemeni government and promoting peace negotiations as part of continuous regional efforts for communication and conflict resolution. However, external players like Iran do their best to undermine these diplomatic efforts.

In the military domain, the EUNAVFOR ASPEDES mission, initiated in February 2024 in response to UN Resolution 2722, is at the forefront of military responses. ASPEDES, claimed as a "successful story" by its Force Commander, Real Admiral Stefano Costantino, has a three-pronged mission: situational awareness, commercial vessel accompaniment, and de-escalatory stance. ASPEDES works alongside other missions, such as EUNAVFOR Atalanta, which fights piracy off the coast of Somalia while concentrating on the Red Sea situation.

Since the beginning of this year, as per the international media, the Indian Navy India has deployed at least a dozen warships east of the Red Sea to provide security against pirates and has investigated more than 250 vessels as Western powers focus on attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis. While India has not joined the U.S.-led task force for the Red Sea and does not have any warships there, at any point in time, it keeps two frontline warships in the Gulf of Aden and at least ten warships in the northern and western Arabian Sea, along with surveillance aircraft. This is India's largest deployment in the region. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has gone on record saying that India's growing capability, interests and reputation warranted its help in difficult situations. Voice of America quoted him as saying, “We will not be considered a responsible country when bad things are happening in the surrounding country, and we say, 'I have got nothing to do with this.”

Long Term Implications

Long-term regional stability depends on Somalia and Yemen developing their capacities; outside military operations frequently result in greater issues. Since it tackles the underlying causes of instability and lessens the attraction of non-state actors, international support for governance and economic growth is crucial.

Significant global economic repercussions have resulted from the Red Sea crisis, with increased shipping and insurance premiums having an effect on global trade. Container shipping prices from China to the U.S. have more than doubled, and the cost of shipping containers from Asia to Europe has increased by almost five times. Supply chains and trade routes have been disrupted because of these cost increases and the delays brought on by ships being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. The continued existence of these issues threatens regional economies as well as international trade, with a particular impact on port traffic and economic dynamics in the Mediterranean and beyond. Long-term changes in global trade patterns could result from the ongoing crisis, which could also change long-standing economic ties and make companies reevaluate their supply chain plans.

Significant geopolitical changes have also been sparked by the crisis, most notably in the perception of regional adversaries like the Houthis. Through effective use of the situation, the Houthis have gained de facto legitimacy from foreign countries and transformed their standing from a domestic rebel organisation to a regional force. The power dynamics within the "Axis of Resistance" are affected by this shift in perspective, which could also impact future approaches to conflict resolution.

International approaches to regional security have been reevaluated because of the crisis, revealing the shortcomings of conventional deterrence techniques against non-state actors. The creation of international coalitions like Operation Prosperity Guardian and Operation Aspis evidences a move toward multilateral measures to handle marine security concerns.

It is still unclear how stable the region will be in the future. Possible outcomes vary from more destabilisation if disputes worsen to a de-escalation through diplomatic efforts. Long-term stability depends on addressing the underlying causes of the war, especially by aiding the establishment of robust governmental structures and security infrastructure in nations like Yemen and Somalia.

Key Takeaways:

From the Red Sea to the Horn of Africa and the Mediterranean, the crisis has brought attention to how intertwined regional security challenges are, highlighting the necessity of an all-encompassing, multi-stakeholder strategy.

This strategy should involve supply chain diversification initiatives, investments in environmentally friendly shipping methods, and political actions to stabilise the area. Future regional stability probably hinges on striking a balance between short-term security measures and long-term projects that resolve local concerns, encourage economic growth, and fortify governance systems throughout the impacted areas.

Attempts to resolve the security situation have been made more difficult by the absence of a coordinated international response to these issues.

M

ilitary fixes by themselves are insufficient to address the region's complicated problems.

C

onventional deterrence tactics have proven ineffective against non-state actors like the Houthis

.

The necessity for a new strategy to combat the Houthis that strikes a balance between immediate security needs and long-term stability objectives is becoming more widely acknowledged.

Hashtags:

#RedSeaCrisis #GlobalTrade #MaritimeSecurity #MiddleEast #NonStateActors #YemenConflict #SomaliaInstability #GlobalEconomy #EnergySecurity #SupplyChainResilience #RegionalStability #Chokepoints #AxisOfResistance #GlobalSecurity

Quotes:

Sources cited:

Pillar Security FROM SUEZ TO THE BAB EL MANDEB SECURING STRATEGIC CHOKEPOINTS (Roma MED Talks)

https://www.csis.org/analysis/gulf-scramble-africa-gcc-states-foreign-policy-laboratory

https://mepei.com/the-geopolitical-importance-of-bab-el-mandeb-strait-a-strategic-gateway-to-global-trade/

https://intueriglobal.com/the-red-sea-crisis-in-global-trade/

https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15775.doc.htm

https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/SOM