SAARC Rising from the ashes

SAARC: RISING FROM THE ASHES?

Under increasing pressure from its neighbours, can India allow the reincarnation of the SAARC?

Veer Puri

17/10/2024

Inheriting an economy that is on a downslide and not expecting a very enthusiastic or generous support from India in the short or middle term, considering its anti-India platform, the interim government has raised a clarion call for reviving SAARC. Since it found the response from India rather lukewarm, it has been trying to muster support amongst other member countries, with Pakistan enthusiastically welcoming the move. There has been studious silence on this proposal on the part of India. So, what are the prospects for a revival of SAARC?

Wither SAARC

SAARC was founded in 1985 as an intergovernmental organization to promote economic cooperation and regional integration between South Asian nations. Made up of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka — SAARC was conceived to further economic growth, social progress and cultural development among the member nations. It is aimed at encouraging collaboration in diverse fields across the governmental spectrum as well as enhancing mutual understanding and cooperation among member states.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has had a paradoxical past since its inception in 1985. Initially, it made some headway with programmes such as the SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) in 1995 and the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) created in 2006. Despite this, the agency has encountered serious obstacles that have hampered its effectiveness.

While initiatives of such kind can benefit the region, SAARC has arguably struggled to bring about much real change, largely due to differences between member states — specifically India and Pakistan.Currently, SAARC finds itself in a state of prolonged dormancy.The last SAARC summit was held in 2014 in Kathmandu, Nepal, but the subsequent summits have been postponed or cancelled for regional conflicts and diplomatic tensions.

The organization's effectiveness has been severely hampered by its consensus-based decision-making process, which allows any member state to block initiatives and exclude bilateral issues from discussions. These structural constraints, compounded by the continued India-Pakistan rivalry, have caused SAARC to lose much of its direction and be replaced with another regional forum called BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation).

Over the last few years, there have been demands to restore SAARC with a renewed vigour, spearheaded mostly bysmaller member states along with some regional heavyweights. Bangladesh is now at the forefront, with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus leading what he terms "a new journey" by internationalizing a campaign to revive SAARC. Pakistan, too, came out in support of the initiative, with its leaders discussing an effort to possibly revive the organization.Countries like Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives do not seem to favour the scuttling of SAARC, as they see it as an importantplatform for sharing common issues and advancing economic integration. Regionalism revival is sought to take advantage of regional cooperation for common purposes such as climate change, terrorism and economic development.

It goes saying that without India, SAARC loses its shine. However, India is still cautious about revival efforts and has expressed doubts primarily on account of Pakistan's continued involvement in cross-border terrorism. A reconfigured SAARC could have huge implications for India in terms of its economic interests and security concerns, as well as diplomatic clout and global stature. Complicating things further is the shifting geopolitical landscape of the region and China's rise as a regional power.

The revival of SAARC holds both prospects and potential challenges for India's regional primacy as well as the future contours of cooperation in South Asia.

SAARC 2.0

There have been occasional attempts to revive SAARC. The growing recognition of the potential benefits of regional cooperation in tackling shared challenges such as economic growth, terrorism, and climate change has been a driving force behind recent efforts to revive it. However, these endeavours have been persistently hampered by the geopolitical tensions currently dominating the region. Because of these political roadblocks, SAARC has not been able to fulfil its promise of being a platform for regional collaboration.

The geopolitical environment of South Asia has altered dramatically since SAARC's founding, making its chances of revival more challenging. China's increasing influence, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, has altered the region's dynamics, and some member states, like India, have started to concentrate more on other regional organizations like BIMSTEC. SAARC's problems have also been exacerbated by the current situation in Afghanistan and its implications for regional security. These shifting dynamics, which have created both opportunities and obstacles for regional cooperation, have influenced SAARC's future direction.

To be relevant and effective in the years to come, the organization must adjust to these new realities and deal with its long-standing problems.

Economic and Trade

There is great potential for increasing intraregional trade among South Asian countries with the resuscitation of SAARC. Despite making up 21 per cent of the world's population, SAARC nations currently only make up 3.8 per cent (US$2.9 trillion) of the global GDP. This discrepancy demonstrates the region's unrealized economic potential. The foundation for improved economic cooperation has been established by creating programs such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the South Asia Preferential Trading Agreement (SAPTA). However, compared to other regional blocs like ASEAN, SAARC's economic integration has advanced more slowly.

India, the largest economy in the region, would benefit greatly from a resurgent SAARC. Increased regional trade could help Indian exports and open new markets. India must, however, reconcile security concerns with economic goals, especially regarding its ties with Pakistan. The creation of regional value chains, the harmonization of trade regulations, and the removal of non-tariff barriers hamper economic cooperation.

A comparison between SAARC and ASEAN offers important information about possible areas for development. The creation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was a watershed moment regarding economic integration in ASEAN, giving rise to increased intra-regional trade and investment within Southeast Asia. The importance of infrastructure development and regional connectivity that ASEAN has emphasized also contributes to the economic resilience among its member states. ASEAN's pragmatic approach of setting attainable goals and gradually expanding its initiatives should act as a template for SAARC moving forward.

Diplomatic and Security Concerns

With terrorism and cross-border challenges at the forefront, security and diplomatic concerns are still crucial in the context of SAARC's possible resurgence. Cross-border terrorism has impeded the progress of SAARC after India pulled out of the 2016 SAARC summit in Islamabad on account of the Uri attack. This perennial battle has hindered regional cooperation and damaged diplomatic relationships in certain fields, such as public health, trade, and environmental preservation.

Despite these obstacles, SAARC offers opportunities for regional security cooperation. A resurgent SAARC would offer a forum for member governments to share intelligence and handle shared security issues. These security measures would be heavily influenced by India, the region's largest economy. India must, however, strike a careful balance between its ambitions to lead the region, the concerns of its smaller members, and the expanding regional influence of external powers like China.

India could gain more soft power in the region and internationally if SAARC is effectively resurrected. As a responsible regional leader, India might improve its standing by assuming a leading role in tackling regional issues and encouraging collaboration. This has the potential to boost India's international position and diplomatic clout. However, to do so, India will have to negotiate intricate regional dynamics and show that it is dedicated to inclusive regional development and security cooperation.

Development and Global Positioning

Reviving SAARC might greatly improve the region's capacity to tackle shared issues like poverty and climate change. To coordinate regional responses, ASEAN, for example, has formed the ASEAN Working Group on Climate Change and the ASEAN Climate Change Initiative. In a similar vein, SAARC might build collaborative efforts to address climate change, like the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, and broaden its efforts to reduce poverty, taking inspiration from ASEAN's achievements in lowering poverty rates among its member nations.

Sharing resources and expertise within SAARC could fast-track development in India while benefiting all the region's countries. The EU is an example of regional cooperation that has worked to achieve knowledge transfer and resource sharing. An instance of that is the EU's Horizon 2020 program, supporting wide-scale research and innovation activities within member countries. By creating regional research facilities and collaborative development initiatives, SAARC might adopt this strategy, enabling India to share its knowledge and gain access to regional knowledge bases.

SAARC's revival could amplify South Asia's voice in global forums, similar to how the African Union (AU) has enhanced Africa's global influence. The continent's standing in international discussions has been reinforced by the AU's unified position on matters such as climate change negotiations. Leading a united SAARC would enhance India's reputation as a regional leader on a global scale. This might be similar to how China has used its regional leadership to increase its influence globally in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. India's aspiration for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and other influential positions could be bolstered by a resurgent SAARC led by India.

Assessments

As long as

Indo-Pak enmity remains at the current levels of high animosity, SAARC cannot be successfully convalesced as a functional bloc.

Yes,

it may hold its annual jamborees, but these will be little more than photo ops. For a bloc to succeed, narrow national interests must be subsumed for the larger group interest, and both India and Pakistan would be unable to sustain

such a move

. Their domestic political compulsions are too deep to allow for a credible compromise, at least

in the near future

Undoubtedly, in a multipolar world where regional groupings are the way ahead to prosperity and peace, South Asia is rapidly being left behind at the cost of the suffering of its billions. Indeed, a tragedy of a gigantic magnitude.

India is sincerely interested in its Neighbours First policy, and its bilateral dealings with Sri Lanka, Bhutan,

Bangladesh

under Hasina Wajid, and Nepal are proof enough. It is only the military

–

dominated Pakistan that is the elephant in the room, too economically weak to make a substantial contribution but militarily too strong to be ignored.

The impasse is likely to be sustained.

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