A Right Swing

The recent European Parliament Elections have given good reason to the Right to be pleased with the outcome.

The outcome of the 2024 European Parliament elections could be a significant shift in political power across the continent. This pivotal event, held in the first week of June, saw 720 lawmakers elected to represent the 27 member states.

Background

The 2024 European Parliament elections were not just a routine democratic exercise but a potential milestone for the European Union. The elections occurred amidst a recovering economy from the COVID-19 pandemic, urgent climate change initiatives, and geopolitical tensions, especially the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.

Economic recovery was a dominant theme, with voters keenly interested in how their representatives would manage post-pandemic economic strategies, inflation, and employment. Climate change, an ever-pressing concern, demanded attention towards sustainable policies and green initiatives.

Additionally, migration continued to be a contentious issue, influencing voter sentiment across many member states.

The election results signalled a significant shift in the political landscape of the EU. Far-right parties made substantial gains, often at the expense of centrist parties, while left-wing and green parties experienced unexpected successes in certain countries.

In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally secured over 30 per cent of the votes, more than doubling the support for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance party. This result has significant implications, leading Macron to call for snap legislative elections, potentially destabilizing his administration’s control over domestic policy.

Italy witnessed a similar trend, with Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, a hard-right faction, winning about 28 per cent of the votes, outpacing its centre-left competitors.

The far-right Freedom Party emerged as the dominant force in Austria, securing the most votes.

Denmark presented an intriguing case where the Socialist People’s Party (SF) surged in support, becoming the largest party with 17.4 per cent of the votes.

Contrary to the far-right trend, left-wing and green parties also made notable gains in some regions. In Germany, while the Social Democrats lost 5.9 percentage points, securing 15.6 per cent of the vote, the Greens saw their support slump, suggesting a mixed response to environmental policies. In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice party lost seats compared to the 2019 vote, with former EU leader Donald Tusk’s party winning just over 37 per cent of the votes, signalling a shift towards more progressive policies.

Analysis

Preliminary figures suggest that voter turnout across the European Union was 51 per cent, consistent with previous European elections. While this turnout is lower than the 66 per cent seen in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, it reflects significant engagement from EU citizens in the democratic process. High voter turnout is indicative of the electorate’s awareness and concern over the pressing issues facing the continent.

The 2024 European Parliament elections highlight a broader political polarization and fragmentation trend across Europe. The surge in support for far-right parties and the corresponding decline in centrist and left-wing parties indicate a shift towards more nationalist and populist ideologies.

The rise of far-right parties suggests potential resistance to key EU initiatives, particularly those related to migration and economic integration. Far-right parties typically advocate for stricter immigration controls and national sovereignty, which could clash with the EU’s collective approach to migration and integration. Economic integration may also face challenges, as far-right parties often prioritize national economic policies over broader EU economic strategies. This could lead to a more fragmented EU, complicating efforts to implement cohesive economic recovery plans and address inflationary pressures.

The election results would also impact the EU’s environmental agenda. The Green parties, crucial advocates for stringent climate policies, faced losses in several countries. This could weaken environmental regulations and slow progress in reducing emissions. A diminished green influence might hinder the EU’s ambitious climate goals, such as the European Green Deal, which aims for a carbon-neutral continent by 2050.

Despite setbacks, the gains experienced by left-wing and green parties in some countries suggest potential for progressive and environmentally focused policies. These parties advocate for social justice, economic equality, and robust climate action. However, their ability to influence EU policies will depend on their capacity to form coalitions and work collaboratively within the fragmented political landscape.

India View

The elections are of particular importance to New Delhi. Widespread concerns over immigration necessitate stricter control of illegal immigrants from India and better-negotiated mobility agreements to create job opportunities for Indian professionals and workers. The EU, being India’s third-largest trading partner, poses a risk of disrupting the sensitive India-EU Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement negotiations if Europe adopts a more protectionist stance. Although internal divisions within the European Parliament regarding conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Israel may not directly impact New Delhi, a broader trend of fragmentation and disunity in the EU could influence the international order.

The upcoming EU-India summit, expected in early 2025, will focus on strengthening engagement on these issues. In the near term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, heading to Italy’s Apulia for the G-7 outreach, will meet with European counterparts and EU leaders to review the implications of the European Parliament elections and the surprising results of the Indian elections.