In a unity move forced by desperation, the French Left managed to edge out the far right, but for how long?
France’s elections delivered a shock victory for the Left when the far Right was just a whisker away from an unprecedented win. However, it has created a hung parliament. The left-wing New Popular Front won the most seats, followed by Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc Ensemble, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) and allies took third place.
Background
President Macron called for a snap parliament election to “clarify” the political situation, but the resulting hung parliament left France in uncertainty. After witnessing a major far-right victory in the EU elections in June, Macron decided to risk a gamble. The leftist New Popular Front (NPF) won the most seats. While many celebrated that France escaped a far-right government, the Left still fell short of the 289 seats majority.
Building a coalition to garner a majority after elections is common in parliamentary democracies like Germany and the Netherlands. However, this is a rare occurrence in France, the first time in its modern history. The country has a semi-presidential system, which combines elements of parliamentary and presidential government with balanced power-sharing between the prime minister and the president. The nation is accustomed to parliamentary majorities and stable governments.
French political parties are unaccustomed to the practice of coalition building and tend to have a more antagonistic approach. Parties face serious differences – the extreme left France Unbound and Macron’s centrist bloc have ruled out joining together to form a coalition.
The left-wing NFP alliance comprises five different parties – the extreme left France Unbound, the Communist Party and two centre-left parties – the Socialists and the Greens. It is now up to President Macron to appoint a prime minister, but whoever he appoints will need the support of a parliamentary majority.
The hastily assembled left-wing alliance was formed to prevent the far right from forming a government. While the effort succeeded, the rise of the far Right cannot be ignored. The far-right RN party won its highest-ever seat count – from 89 seats in 2022, it went up to 143 seats (including its allies) this time. This makes it the largest single party in parliament. The RN has won more votes in each election from 2017 to 2022 to 2024. Macron’s Ensemble alliance fared unexpectedly well but fell from 245 seats in 2022 to 163 this time.
Analysis
The fragmented parliament could lead to a period of instability as three different blocs scramble to form a coalition. The parties will face the challenge of working together and deciding on a prime minister.
The divergent views mean that major structural reform is unlikely to be passed, and the Left will have to rely on individual legislation through ad hoc consensus building. The new National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) will have to forge consensus across parties to agree on policies and laws, which major differences on issues like taxes, immigration, and the Gaza war could complicate.
Macron may look to strike a deal with the more moderate parties of the left, such as the Socialists and the Greens, excluding France Unbound. It remains to be seen whether they agree. Another option could be to form a government with the centrists and the conservative party, The Republicans, who came in fourth, but that would require additional support. If the leftist NFP and Macron’s Ensemble manage to stitch together a coalition, it would span vastly different ideologies. This would make it difficult to find common ground, and gridlock may be the result.
While Macron’s term continues till 2027, the lack of a majority will make it difficult for him to implement an agenda on the domestic front. Macron and his centrist allies won’t be able to pass pro-business policies such as a plan to overhaul unemployment benefits. It could also make passing a budget more complicated. The Left will likely seek to overhaul the Macron government pension reform that increased the retirement age from 62 to 64. Its plans involve increased government spending and steps like raising the minimum wage and capping certain foods and energy prices. This enhanced spending plan may lead to disagreements, particularly given France’s ballooning fiscal deficit and the EU’s restrictive fiscal rules.
However, as per the constitution, the president still has a say in aspects like foreign policy, European affairs, defence, and treaties and the new prime minister may not have much of a say in these areas.
Assessment
- The new National Assembly, comprising a medley of different political parties with no clear majority, leaves France on unfamiliar terrain. The parties will have to manoeuvre their way to form a government and build consensus to pass laws and agree on policies.
- For Macron, it meanshe will face more challenges in implementing his party’s agenda on the domestic front as the Left may favour more social spending and less pro-business measures. However, in foreign policy and defence matters, Macron is likely to have more authority than the new prime minister.
- The collective sigh of relief at the defeat of the resurgent Right reflects the deep-seated fear of a descent into fascism that still haunts the continent. There’s little excuse for complacency, but there’s cause for celebration that resistance, however ill-organised, is never futile.
