Iran: Hopes for Moderation

Will the election of a moderate president make Iran more acceptable to the larger international community?

The election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new President marks a potential shift in the country’s political landscape. Pezeshkian’s victory over hardliner Saeed Jalili in the recent runoff election suggests a desire among Iranians for a more moderate approach on both domestic and foreign policy fronts.

The U.S. showed little enthusiasm for the results. A U.S. State Department spokesperson showed little faith in the fairness of the elections conducted, stating that the elections will not have a significant impact on its approach to Iran, though the U.S. remains “committed” to diplomacy when it advances American interests. 

Background

Masoud Pezeshkian secured 58 per cent of the vote in a highly contested runoff election, with his closest rival, Saeed Jalili, garnering 42 per cent. The voter turnout was notably high, with 73 per cent of eligible voters participating in the election. The high voter turnout is being taken in some quarters as the Iranian people ‘voting with their feet’ to convey the widespread dissatisfaction with the previous administration’s handling of economic, geopolitical and social issues.

Pezeshkian’s predecessor, the late President Ebrahim Raisi, was known for his hardline positions and crackdowns on dissent. Raisi’s tenure was marked by an aggressive foreign policy, particularly towards the United States and other Western nations, and a strict enforcement of social and cultural norms within Iran.

In contrast, Pezeshkian has positioned himself as a unifying figure, pledging to engage with Iran’s adversaries, particularly concerning the country’s nuclear programme. Pezeshkian’s rhetoric indicates a significant departure from Raisi’s confrontational approach. He has advocated for dialogue with Western nations, viewing it as a pathway to addressing Iran’s internal challenges, such as economic woes and social unrest.

Pezeshkian’s path to the presidency was not without its challenges. He was the sole reformist candidate permitted to run after numerous others were disqualified. This reflects the complexities and power dynamics within Iran’s political system, where the Supreme Leader and hardline factions significantly influence the electoral process.

Analysis

Domestically, the Iranian public would expect a healing touch from the new President. When young Mahsa Amini mysteriously died in police custody after being arrested for an alleged headscarf violation, Mr Pezeshkian had demanded clarification from authorities. While casting his vote in the recent elections, he referred to the case, stating, “We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behaviour towards women.”

Pezeshkian’s campaign platform included promises to relax the enforcement of Iran’s compulsory headscarf law and promote social liberalisation. This stance reflects a desire among Iranians, particularly the younger generation, for greater personal freedoms and a more progressive social agenda.

While Pezeshkian has acknowledged the Supreme Leader’s authority and stated that he does not intend to confront Iran’s powerful elite of clerics and security hawks, his election nonetheless signals a potential shift towards a more nuanced approach to domestic reforms. For instance, Pezeshkian has proposed increasing the transparency of government institutions and reducing censorship in media and the arts. These measures aim to foster a more open society where citizens can express their opinions freely.

On the economic front, Mr Pezeshkian has a hard road to travel. He inherits an economy beset by a range of challenges, including mismanagement, corruption, and the impact of international sanctions.

One of the key areas of focus for Pezeshkian’s economic policy is the revitalisation of Iran’s private sector. He has promised to reduce bureaucratic red tape and incentivise small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to spur job creation and innovation. Additionally, Pezeshkian aims to attract foreign investment by creating a more favourable business environment and protecting investors’ rights.

However, the extent to which Pezeshkian can enact meaningful economic reforms remains uncertain, as he will likely face resistance from hardline factions within the government. These factions have traditionally opposed economic liberalisation and maintain significant influence over key economic sectors. Furthermore, the potential return to power of former U.S. President Donald Trump, responsible for reimposing sanctions on Iran, could further complicate Pezeshkian’s efforts to address the country’s economic challenges.

Externally, there is great anticipation that Pezeshkian’s presidency may lead to a more moderate foreign policy stance for Iran. The president-elect has expressed a willingness to revive negotiations with major powers to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018.

This shift in approach could pave the way for improved dialogue and a less confrontational relationship between Iran and Western nations, particularly the United States. Pezeshkian’s track record as a diplomat and his role in previous negotiations suggest he is well-equipped to navigate the complexities of international diplomacy. However, the extent of these changes remains uncertain, as the ultimate power in Iran’s political landscape rests with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

As Pezeshkian assumes office, he will need to navigate this intricate political landscape carefully, balancing the demands of reformist factions, the expectations of the Iranian people, and the constraints imposed by the country’s powerful conservative establishment. His ability to forge alliances within the government and with key stakeholders will be crucial in implementing his reform agenda.

While Pezeshkian has signalled a willingness to engage in diplomatic efforts, how he will navigate the complex web of regional alliances and rivalries remains to be seen. His approach to relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s primary regional rival, will be particularly crucial. There is potential for the de-escalation of tensions if Pezeshkian can successfully engage in dialogue with Saudi leaders and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

However, the new President’s stance on issues like Iran’s relations with Israel is expected to maintain continuity rather than ushering in drastic changes. The spectre of a potential return to power by former U.S. President Donald Trump also looms over Iran’s diplomatic engagements, complicating efforts to revive the nuclear deal and alleviate economic sanctions.