Himalayan Brew!

Once again, political turmoil is visible in Nepal. Should India be concerned?

Nepal, a nation nestled in the Himalayas, faces significant political upheaval again. Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), has risen like a phoenix to assume the mantle of premiership once again.

Background

This development comes on the heels of incumbent Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ failing to secure a crucial trust vote in Parliament. This setback underscores the fragile and often volatile nature of Nepalese politics.

Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli has had a long and tumultuous career in Nepal’s political landscape. Joining the Communist Party of Nepal in 1970, Oli has been a prominent figure in the country’s democracy movement, enduring multiple arrests and imprisonments. His political journey saw him assume various governmental roles, including Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, before becoming Prime Minister for the first time in 2018. During his previous tenure, Oli was known for ambitious promises and centralized power dynamics, which garnered both support and criticism

The formation of a new coalition Congress marks the current political reconfiguration in Nepal. This new coalition, comprising the CPN-UML, the Madhesh-based Janta Samajwadi Party, and the Swatantra Party, was forged through an eight-point deal, marking the third alliance government since the National Assembly elections in November 2022.

Analysis

The recent breakdown of the alliance between the Maoist Centre-led government and the Nepali Congress was reportedly driven by a combination of power-sharing disputes, political discontent, and external pressures. Dahal’s decision to sever ties with the Nepali Congress and ally with the CPN-UML was unexpected and highlighted the fluid nature of political alliances in Nepal.

The coalition between the CPN-UML and other parties is seen as a pragmatic move to ensure political stability. However, given Nepal’s history of political instability, the long-term viability of this arrangement remains uncertain. This latest alliance underscores the complexities of Nepal’s political landscape, characterized by short-term governments and shifting allegiances.

The political instability in Nepal is deeply rooted in ideological differences and personal rivalries. The relationship between Dahal and Oli, both strong personalities, has been fraught with disagreements over power-sharing and ideological differences. These tensions previously led to the dissolution of a unity party formed by the merger of the Maoists and the CPN-UML.

The re-emergence of the Left Alliance in Nepal has significant implications for the country’s foreign relations, particularly with its two powerful neighbours, China and India. The political dynamics in Nepal are influenced by the strategic interests of these two countries, each seeking to expand their influence in the region.

China has historically supported leftist parties in Nepal and has made significant efforts to strengthen its ties with the country. Beijing’s interest in Nepal is driven by its desire to secure its border with the Tibet region and to promote its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Nepal’s participation in the BRI in 2017 was a major diplomatic victory for China. However, despite this agreement, progress on BRI projects has been limited.

The return of the Left Alliance, particularly the CPN-UML, is likely to result in a tilt towards China in Nepal’s foreign policy. Oli’s previous tenure saw efforts to strengthen ties with China, including signing transit and trade agreements. Beijing may seek to leverage this relationship to advance its strategic interests, including discussions on an extradition treaty to control the activities of Tibetan refugees in Nepal.

On the other hand, India has traditionally enjoyed strong ties with the Nepali Congress and the Maoists. The recent dissolution of the Maoist-Congress coalition poses challenges for India, as it loses a favourable political equation. India has been cautious about Chinese influence in Nepal, particularly in areas such as energy trade, where it strictly purchases power generated through its investments in Nepal. The new government under Oli may seek to renegotiate these arrangements, potentially complicating the energy trade dynamics between the two countries.

The re-emergence of the Left Alliance may also impact Nepal’s relationship with the United States. Despite domestic and Chinese opposition, the approval of a $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant from the United States in 2022 was a significant development. China perceives the MCC as part of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy, countering its BRI. As the Left Alliance government takes charge, there may be a slowdown in the implementation of MCC projects, reflecting the influence of China.

Oli’s return as Prime Minister comes at a time when Nepal is grappling with numerous challenges, including political instability, economic difficulties, and social issues. The new coalition government faces the daunting task of addressing these challenges while maintaining a stable and effective administration.

The history of short-term governments in Nepal over the past 15 years of democratic progression suggests that the current reconfiguration may also be temporary. The possibility of the Maoists re-aligning with the Nepali Congress in the future cannot be ruled out, given the fluid nature of political alliances in the country.

For India, the return of Oli and the Left Alliance poses challenges in maintaining its influence in Nepal. The close ties between the CPN-UML and China concern New Delhi, which will need to navigate this situation carefully. Engaging with all political parties in Nepal and fostering positive relationships will be crucial for India to protect its strategic interests.