Germany: New Leadership
From coalition stability to uniting a fraught Europe, the Merz-led government will be on its toes.
As the international community grapples with the repercussions of Donald Trump’s controversial approach to Ukraine, which has cast doubt on the United States’ reliability as a partner for Europe, attention has shifted to Germany and its newly elected government. Many are now looking to Berlin to assume a leadership role in shaping Europe’s response to geopolitical challenges
The recent German elections saw Friedrich Merz’s conservative party secure a decisive victory, while the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany; AfD) emerged as the second-largest political force. This outcome has raised questions about the new government’s ability to steer Europe through a period of uncertainty and instability. Can Germany, under this leadership, rise to the occasion and provide the strong, cohesive direction that Europe urgently needs?
Expectations are high as Europe seeks a stable and forward-thinking power to fill the void left by the U.S.’s wavering commitment. The domestic and international policies of the new German government will be closely scrutinised to determine whether it can effectively address pressing issues such as transatlantic relations, European security, and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. The world will watch with anticipation to see if Germany can step into a leadership role and help navigate Europe through these turbulent times.
THE VICTORY.
Merz leads the centre-right alliance of two parties, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU), which is poised to establish a coalition to form Germany’s new government. The most politically feasible option appears to be a partnership between the CDU/CSU and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).
These two parties have been the dominant forces in German politics since the post-war era and previously collaborated to form three of the four governments under Angela Merkel’s leadership. Their experience in coalition-building and governance could provide stability and continuity in a time of political transition.
However, this election also highlighted a broader Europe-wide trend: the growing influence of far-right parties. In Germany, the AfD significantly increased its share of the vote, doubling its support compared to previous elections. The AfD campaign focused on advocating for stricter migration policies and criticising the green energy transition, arguing that it imposed undue economic burdens on Germany. With 20.8 per cent of the vote, the AfD has now become the largest opposition party in the German parliament, the Bundestag, marking a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape.
This surge in far-right support reflects deeper societal divisions and growing discontent with mainstream policies, particularly on issues such as immigration and economic sustainability. The rise of the AfD as a formidable opposition force adds complexity to the new government’s task of maintaining unity and addressing the concerns of a polarised electorate. As Germany navigates this new political reality, the ability of the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition to balance progressive policies with the need to counter influence from the far-right will be critical to its success and to Germany’s role as a stabilising force in Europe.
A STRUGGLE FOR STABILITY.
Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance has firmly committed to upholding the longstanding “firewall” policy, which entails excluding the AfD from any form of governmental cooperation. This principle, deeply rooted in Germany’s post-war political culture, is designed to isolate parties associated with extremism and uphold democratic norms. However, the AfD—once a fringe party with extremist ties—has now emerged as a significant political force that commands substantial voter support and has become the largest opposition party in the Bundestag. This shift has forced mainstream parties to grapple with the AfD’s growing influence while maintaining their commitment to the firewall.
Although Merz has occasionally shown signs of softening his stance toward the AfD, his brief attempts to engage with the far-right party were met with backlash and proved politically untenable. As a result, he has reaffirmed his commitment to the firewall, signalling a return to the traditional policy of exclusion. Despite this, the CDU/CSU and the SPD’s efforts to counter the AfD’s appeal by adopting tougher rhetoric on immigration and other far-right talking points have largely failed to win over AfD voters. Even their core supporters were unimpressed, suggesting that such strategies may alienate moderate voters without addressing the underlying issues driving support for the far-right.
For the new government, the challenge will be to avoid defining itself solely in opposition to the AfD or pandering to far-right narratives. Centrist parties will need to focus on addressing pressing public concerns, such as Germany’s stagnating economy and growing security threats, rather than allowing divisive issues like migration to dominate the political agenda. These broader issues resonate deeply with the electorate and offer a pathway to rebuilding trust and credibility among voters disillusioned with mainstream politics.
Yet the new administration cannot entirely ignore the issue of migration either, particularly in light of recent security concerns. A series of violent attacks involving individuals who sought asylum in Germany has heightened public anxiety and underscored the need for balanced, effective policies to manage migration while ensuring national security. The government will need to strike a delicate balance, implementing measures that address these risks without resorting to the populist rhetoric that has fueled the AfD’s rise.
Coalition unity is another critical challenge facing the new government. The AfD is likely to exploit policy differences between the SPD and the CDU/CSU, particularly on contentious issues such as migration, taxation, and economic policy. These divisions could weaken the coalition’s ability to present a united front and implement coherent policies, creating opportunities for the AfD to further consolidate its position as a disruptive opposition force. To counter this, the coalition partners must prioritise collaboration and compromise, focusing on shared goals and the broader interests of the German public.
In summary, the new government faces a complex political landscape, marked by the growing influence of the AfD and the need to address pressing economic and security challenges. By focusing on substantive issues, maintaining coalition unity, and upholding democratic principles, the CDU/CSU and SPD can work to stabilise Germany’s political environment and counter the appeal of the far-right. However, this will require careful navigation of internal disagreements and a steadfast commitment to addressing the concerns of all Germans, not just those swayed by populist rhetoric.
FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES.
Major foreign policy issues will be Germany’s relations with the U.S. and its stance on Ukraine, and stakes are high. Merz will likely be expected to steer Europe towards an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Ukraine issue also has domestic repercussions as many working-class Germans are against what they consider too much money spent on supporting Ukraine. The AfD campaign to cut military aid to Ukraine and pressure it to negotiate with Russia resonates with Trump’s approach to the matter.
Another issue is China. Germany’s approach has been to cautiously de-risk from China while maintaining economic ties. The previous government was conciliatory towards China, vocally lobbying against increased EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles because German carmakers are highly dependent on China. However, the new government is likely to take a tougher stance towards China, favouring a hawkish, EU-first approach and trying to make the German economy less dependent on China. Merz is keen to strengthen ties with London, Paris, and Warsaw, despite some differences with France and Poland. One of his government’s top priorities will be to enhance defence and security capabilities, collaborating with Poland and France to present a strong front to a belligerent Russia and a transactional Trump administration that does not seem willing to stand by Europe. Reaching an agreement with Poland may require clear commitments. For Poland, the war in Ukraine is a central issue. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expects commitments to increase support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia.
As Merz grapples with the task of shoring up European defence, spending in the sector will emerge as a pivotal factor. Under the leadership of Olaf Scholz, German defence spending hit the 2% of GDP target. Merz will have to maneuver to increase that spending while navigating Germany’s government debt restrictions and building consensus on defence spending and cooperation.
A EUROPEAN LEADER?.
Friedrich Merz is a staunch advocate for European integration and envisions Germany playing a leading role in the global struggle between authoritarian regimes and democratic values, as highlighted in a Guardian article dated February 24, 2025. He has been vocal in his criticism of external interference in European politics, particularly condemning Elon Musk’s alleged meddling in German elections to favour the far-right AfD, as well as similar interventions by J.D. Vance in Munich.
Merz’s political background positions him as a figure well-equipped to take on a prominent role within the European Union. Unlike many politicians who begin their careers in local or national offices, Merz started his political journey in the 1980s as a member of the European Parliament. This experience has endowed him with a strong orientation toward pan-European relationships and extensive familiarity with the European People’s Party, a centre-right political network that operates across the continent.
As the U.S. under Donald Trump engages in negotiations with Russia that bypass the interests of Ukraine and Europe, the continent finds itself in need of an assertive and unified Germany to amplify its voice on the global stage. Germany’s previous government was marked by internal divisions and a lack of decisive leadership, compounded by an economy that struggled to regain momentum after a recent downturn. With France also grappling with its own political instability, Europe faces a significant power vacuum, creating an urgent demand for capable and visionary leadership.
Merz appears determined to step into this role, emphasising the need for Europe to achieve “real independence from the U.S.” and expressing scepticism about the long-term viability of NATO in its current form. His vision for a stronger, more autonomous Europe reflects a broader recognition of shifting geopolitical landscapes and the necessity for European nations to take greater responsibility for their collective security and strategic interests.
By positioning Germany as a central pillar of European leadership, Merz aims to restore stability and influence to a continent navigating an increasingly complex and fragmented global order.
APPROACH TO THE US.
The issue of NATO and its viability will persist, and Merz may have to evaluate how Europe can take on more responsibility for its defense independent of the U.S. However, he recognizes that the protective relationship between Germany and the U.S. has now changed and that Europe will have to fortify itself.
Synergia Takeaways:
• The new government will have to strive to maintain cohesion and avoid getting embroiled in contentious domestic issues that could shake the coalition’s stability, particularly with the AfD nipping at its heels.
• It will need to manage ties with the unpredictable Trump administration while endeavouring to fortify EU security, take a decisive stance on Ukraine, and step into the role of a leading nation in the bloc.
