EUROPE’S QUANDARY -LEFT RIGHT OR CENTRE?
As Europe bucks the right–wing swing, it brings back nightmarish memories of the fascist tide of the previous century.
Doubts and concerns for the future beset the European voter. Convinced that the liberal centrists that have ruled so long have failed to stem the tide of immigrants, curb radical terror and sustain the high quality of lifethey had got accustomed to, the voter is daring to look elsewhere. As it happened in Germany after World War I, the voters are inclined to trust once again their fates to the slippery and dangerous road to extreme right-wing governance that, as always, promises a forcefully purposeful and nationalistic orientation.
This right-wing trend in Europe is attributed by many to a widespread anti-incumbency sentiment. Economic factors, such as rising food and energy costs and declining disposable incomes, are significant drivers of this voting change. While far-right parties often campaign on anti-immigration and Eurosceptic platforms, their broader appeal lies in addressing universal concerns like jobs, education, healthcare, national identity, and the economy. These parties attract a diverse coalition of voters disillusioned with the political establishment.
The far-right jumped to the limelight in the recent European Parliament elections when they fared much better than anticipated. The centre-right European People’s Party retained its dominance, winning 188 seats. However, right-wing alliances, such as the European Conservatives and Reformists group and the Identity and Democracy group, made significant inroads.
Despite their growing popularity, the extreme right failed to secure a majority in France's election. Many European capitals were relieved by the election results, and French cooperation with Germany and other nations is expected to continue.
EU Landscape
While mainstream media in Europe continues to downplay the influence of the far right, like the NR in France, Brothers of Italy and the Alternative for Democracy in Germany, the reality is that the right-wing is gaining in strength. However, even within their ranks, a political divide remains between the more conventional and less rabid right and an emboldened new fascist one. However, how soon this gulf can be bridged is something that needs to be carefully watched.
Earlier this month, a government of far-right figures was established in the Netherlands. Its most right-wing leader currently leads Italy since the fascist wartime leader Benito Mussolini. These electoral successes and the prospect of populist right-wing leaders in power are no longer surprising in European countries.
The rise in populism can be attributed to various factors, often unique to individual countries. Generally, many European nations are experiencing sluggish economies, high immigration, and increased energy prices, partly due to pursuing carbon net zero goals. Populist politicians often blame the European Union for national issues, fuelling an increasingly Eurosceptic national discourse.
While Britain has swung left, far-right parties across Europe have gained ground against their more liberal and centrist opponents, as demonstrated by recent EU Parliament elections. This shift has raised concerns that mainstream parties are abandoning the post-WWII principle of non-collaboration with fascists, thereby expanding the political space for neo-fascism.
Conversely, many Western European countries, which previously criticised Brexit and the UK's populist trends, are now seeing their electorates move to the right. Nationalist and populist parties, such as Italy's Fratelli d’Italia, the Netherlands' Party for Freedom, Germany's Alternative for Germany, and France's National Rally, are rising in polls and elections.
The recent EU Parliament election results have raised concerns that political establishments across Europe are quietly abandoning the post-WWII principle of "no collaboration with fascists."The European People's Party (EPP), comprising Christian democrats, liberal conservatives, and traditional conservatives, emerged as the biggest winner in the European Parliament elections. Nonetheless, the new parliament will not include any left-wing parties with extremism comparable to that of the far right, sparking worries about potential collaboration between the EPP and neo-fascist factions.
France’s Dangerous Dance with the Right
France has a significant say in European matters, ranked along with Germany as the most influential country in Europe and globally. Therefore, the kind of political philosophy that reigns over the country has significant implications for the rest of Europe.
Since it became a republic in 1787, France has flirted with monarchy (Napoleon Bonaparte), the Communists (the short-lived Paris Commune after the fall of Napoleon III in 1871) and dictatorship (the Vichy France regime between 1940 and 1942).
The Left in France has always remained a strong presence, especially since the end of World War I, with the Russian Communists taking a keen interest in nurturing the left in the fractious political landscape of France. The French communistresistance (FTP) fought bitterly against the Nazi occupation during World War II and were real close to seizing political control at the time of liberation in 1944. Their influence was strongly felt in the new government elected in October 1945; three-fourths of the deputies were Communists, Socialists, or Christian Democrats.
In the blog 'Friends of Europe' (4 July 24), Rim-Sarah Alouane, a legal scholar, traces the origins of the modern far-right in France to the National Front (Front National) formed by Jean-Marie Le Pen in 1972. Initially seen as a fringe party with a reputation for xenophobia, anti-Semitism, ties with Nazi collaborators and extreme nationalism, the National Front struggled for mainstream acceptance. However, over the decades, it has undergone significant evolution and rebranding. Under the leadership of his daughter, Marine Le Pen, the party sought to soften its image and broaden its appeal by focusing on issues like economic protectionism, national sovereignty and a strong stance against immigration. This strategy of dédiabolisation or 'de-demonisation' has made the party more palatable to a broader electorate, effectively transforming it into a significant force in French politics under a new name."This electoral shift towards accommodating far-right narratives within the mainstream poses a significant challenge to France and the European Union's cohesion and democratic foundations,” says Alouane.
The gains made became clear in the European Parliament elections when the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) rallied ahead. The shock was intensified when the French parliamentary elections showed a definite trend to a right-wing victory in the first phase of voting, forcing the left wing to unite with the centre to stave off the right-wing challenge.
The unexpected victory of France’s left-wing alliance in the snap legislative election was met with relief across Europe. Centrists had feared that the far-right's potential rise to power in France, the EU's second-largest economy, would cause economic and political instability and undermine the bloc's strong support for Ukraine.
However, the hung parliament and lack of a clear path to a governing coalition in Paris still cast uncertainty over France’s influence in Brussels. A possible outcome is a left-leaning government sharing power with centrist President Emmanuel Macron.
Macron's political credibility remains intact despite losing seats in the National Assembly. "He will be less weakened than we had expected, and France will continue to exercise its international role with a certain panache, as it has done until now," said Federico Santopinto, director of the French think tank IRIS, to Euronews.
Olivia Lazard, a fellow at think tank Carnegie Europe, told Euronews (8 July 24) that the far-right's unexpected second-round defeat means Macron will "retain credibility" while France avoids recoiling into some kind of sovereigntist and nationalist narrative which obviously runs against Europe. “France at the moment is still one of the key bastions in Europe against the rise of the radical right, and against the influence of Russia," Lazard told Euronews' Radio Schuman. "It means that Europe will stay safe for a relative amount of time still when it comes to defence issues.”
A second-round victory for the far-right National Rally, which led in the first round, would have further threatened EU support for Ukraine. Marine Le Pen's party, with historical ties to Russia, had pledged to reduce French aid to Ukraine and was controversially loaned €9 billion from a Russian bank in 2014 despite sanctions over Crimea.
European leaders, particularly in the east, feared that Macron’s foreign policy would be weakened if he had to share power with a far-right government, potentially reducing France’s support for Kyiv.Le Pen’s party had modified its stance on the war before the European elections, indicating it would provide military aid but refrain from sending long-range weapons capable of striking Russian territory.The leader of the far-left France Unbowed party (LFI), part of the victorious New Popular Front Alliance, has also faced accusations of a pro-Russian stance. Support for Ukraine could fracture the unity of the New Popular Front, which includes various forms of socialism.
Climate advocates also welcomed the defeat of the National Rally. National Rally leader Jordan Bardella had previously called for France to abandon the European Green Deal, criticising EU environmental policies. In contrast, the left-wing alliance supports a climate plan aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 and promoting renewable energy.
"This election is a wake-up call for European leaders," said Neil Makaroff, director of the think tank Strategic Perspectives. "It's time to address deindustrialisation, under-investment, and rising energy bills caused by dependence on gas, oil, and coal imports."
Britons Leaning Left
In recent years, the UK has shifted back to the centre-left, diverging from its previous Brexit-driven, Eurosceptic, and anti-immigrant stance. In the UK, the Labour Party's landslide victory marks the end of 14 years of Conservative rule, signalling a return to centre-left governance.
Labour won the 2024 election by a landslide, but a significant story was the low turnout, the lowest since 2001. At 59.9 per cent, the turnout was notably lower than 67.3 per cent in 2019.These figures overestimate actual turnout, as they follow the British tradition of calculating turnout as a proportion of registered voters, excluding millions of unregistered voters. Calculating turnout as a proportion of those eligible to vote provides a more accurate measure of participation.
This data reveals a long-term decline in support for the two main parties since 1945, alongside a growing proportion of non-voters. While Labour achieved a landslide victory, the real landslide was among non-voters.The 2024 British general election, anticipated amidst numerous national setbacks, culminated in a resounding defeat for the Conservatives, showcasing democracy's capacity for rejection, reversal, and renewal.
The defeat of the Conservative party marks a significant moment, reflecting public exhaustion with its leadership and a desire for political renewal. The broader question is whether this election signals a permanent shift in British politics, potentially leading to the Conservative Party's decline, akin to the Liberal Party's fall a century ago, supplanted by the emerging Labour Party. While such a transformation is rare, the comparison is worth considering in the context of the post-Brexit realignment of party identification.
The future of UK politics will depend on how effectively Labour addresses the pressing issues it faces as a new government and how the Conservatives reorganise and respond to this historic defeat.
Assessment
No country has been immune to pandemic swings, economic
lows and voter despondency. All of this and more is
evident across Europe, and the two recent elections in the UK and France have shown how much it has impacted outcomes, too.
But whether the trend indicates a more enduring swing to the right is not so clear at this juncture.
Unexpected and emphatic victories of the left in France and the UK have emboldened
sentiment. The far-right's unexpected second-round defeat ensures
a shift towards a
sovereigntist
and nationalist narrative that opposes European ideals
, which has been pushed back, at least for now.
Reclaiming the political space from this new fascism will require decisive action. President Macron risked such a move when he called for snap elections but only narrowly kept the far right out of power. Other countries have not been as lucky.
