Breaching the Social Contract?

Kenya, the lodestar for African Democracy, is again in focus, all for the wrong reasons.

Kenya, the most vibrant democracy in Africa, seems plagued with political unrest that is refusing to go away. Many lay the blame for the current rounds of protest squarely on the shoulders of President William Ruto, raising questions on his adherence, or lack thereof, to the social contract with the Kenyan people. At last count, 39 protestors had been killed and many more seriously injured, with accusations of police brutality being publicly voiced.

Clearly, the worsening economic situation and the associated public frustrations with rising living costs and obstructive government policies have a part to play. The finance bill and its aftermath illustrate the delicate balance between fiscal policy and public welfare in a time of economic distress.

Background

The immediate trigger for the protests was the introduction of a finance bill proposing substantial tax increases aimed at raising $2.3 billion. These regressive tax policies disproportionately affect poor Kenyans, many of whom feel betrayed by Ruto’s government. The bill also allocated significant funds for renovating the President’s residence and other extravagant expenditures, further fuelling public anger. The International Labor Organization noted in a 2019 report that nearly 40 per cent of Kenya’s working-age population is unemployed.

The protest movements are spearheaded by the youths (70 per cent of Kenya’s 54 million people are under the age of 34), underlining the overall frustration of the masses with a political system that has failed to deliver. The young people are organizing themselves through innovative, leaderless movements often coordinated online.

The demands include not only the reversal of the painful tax hikes but a larger overhaul of the governance that prioritizes transparency, accountability, and social justice. This young demographic is disillusioned by a political class perceived as greedy and indifferent.

Caught by surprise with the vehemence of the protests, President Ruto eventually scrapped the contentious tax plan and called for dialogue with the demonstrators. This move was seen as too little and too late, for it did not address the underlying issues driving the protests. The beleaguered President went a step forward and, dismissed his entire cabinet, and proposed an independent audit task force. This, too, has met with a lukewarm response, drawing scepticism about its sincerity and effectiveness.

Ruto also introduced austerity measures, including cuts to government spending, suspending non-essential travel for state officers, and reducing the number of advisors in government by 50 per cent. He proposed a budget cut of approximately Ksh177 billion ($1.2 billion) to manage public debt more effectively. Additionally, Ruto attempted to engage directly with the youth, leading the protests through social media platforms. However, this effort did not yield the desired results in calming public unrest.

Analysis

A social contract implies a mutual agreement between the government and its citizens, wherein the government is expected to protect the rights and welfare of its people in exchange for their support and compliance. This is the bedrock on which most democracies rest their authority.

Kenyans are convinced that President Ruto has violated this contract in his failure to address their rising economic dilapidation; on the contrary, a non-sympathetic government is restricting their right to freedom of expression by violently cracking down on peaceful protests. The government has treated its citizens as a threat, fearing a nationwide revolt that could unseat its leaders.

There is a disconnect between political leaders and the populace, with many citizens expressing anger at the perceived lavish lifestyles of politicians while ordinary Kenyans struggle to make ends meet. This sentiment has extended to religious institutions, particularly the Church, which has been criticized for its close ties to the government. Many young protesters have called for re-evaluating the Church’s role in politics, seeking a more independent stance that prioritizes the community’s needs over political alliances. Acknowledging public anger, the Church organized a special Mass to honour those who lost their lives during the protests. This development reflects a broader shift in societal dynamics, where traditional institutions are challenged to adapt to the changing political landscape and the demands of a more politically engaged youth.

The Kenyan public’s mistrust of the government’s use of their taxes is well-founded. Corruption remains rampant, with politicians awarding themselves lucrative salaries and engaging in extravagant spending. For instance, a senator in Kenya earns $85,800 annually, vastly higher than the country’s $2,000 GDP per capita.

At the heart of the turmoil lies Kenya’s economic crisis- the country’s debt burden stands at 68 per cent of its GDP, with more than a quarter of government revenue spent on interest payments. Kenya has resorted to extreme measures to stave off default, including borrowing from private creditors at unsustainable interest rates. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a preliminary agreement with Kenya on the disbursement of loans, urging the government to raise its revenue by $2.7 billion. The government’s decision to implement regressive tax policies to meet this target has significantly burdened the poorest citizens, exacerbating existing inequalities.

The events in Kenya also have significant implications for international relations, particularly with the United States. Just days before the violence erupted, Kenya was designated a “major non-NATO ally” by the United States, and Ruto was received at the White House with a formal state visit. The Biden administration views Kenya as a key security and trade partner in a region beset by instability. However, the recent violence highlights the dangers of prioritizing trade and security interests over democracy and the rule of law.

The Kenyan security forces’ conduct at home raises concerns about their involvement in international missions. On the same day that protesters were being shot in Nairobi, 400 Kenyan security forces arrived in Haiti on a U.S.-backed mission. Given their domestic track record, there are fears that their deployment in Haiti could exacerbate the situation rather than stabilize it.