Balancing Borders: China’s Role
(Prof. Varaprasad Sekhar Dolla, Professor in Chinese Studies, Chairperson of the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University)
China has been a key factor in the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan for the last seven decades, leading to several complexities. This phenomenon is likely to continue in the foreseeable future given the persisting nature of the two-pronged conflict between India and Pakistan and India and China.
It is often argued that China has been empowering Pakistan both militarily and economically and propping it to contain India in its rise as a regional and global power and thereby eliminate a powerful competitor in Asia and global politics. To better understand the China factor in India-Pakistan relations, it is imperative to delve into three pivotal contexts: bilateral, regional and global.
Indo-Pak relations have been weathering through the volatile vicissitudes since the inception of two nation-states in 1947. Four wars, besides regular incursions and infiltrations, have led to the loss of lakhs of lives. A key component of this dyad, which is in constant conflict, is the China factor, making it more of a triad, particularly from the 1963 border delimitation agreement between Pakistan and China, which is resolutely contested by India. Though China did not support Pakistan militarily in the wars fought after 1964, it has been empowering it by supplying defence technologies. China’s role in Pakistan’s emergence as a nuclear power is pivotal, which led to restructuring the balance of power between India and Pakistan.
In the 21st century, a new paradigm is unfolding in the Chinese foreign policy architecture indirectly impacting the relations between India and Pakistan. As part of this paradigm, China has been endeavouring to factor the framework of smart power, a fusion of hard power and soft power elements, in its foreign policy architecture. Thus its relations with Pakistan form a cog in the wheel of its foreign policy that is aimed at expanding its footprint all across the world through its much touted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
A key component of the BRI is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China promised to invest about $60 billion which includes the construction of Gwadar port. Yet, we see a deep economic crisis in Pakistan. This is primarily because of the way interest rates are escalated from time to time, thereby increasing the debt burden and plunging Pakistan into a debt trap.
In the regional context, China has been striving to expand its strategic footprint in South Asia. Having signed strategic partnerships with most countries in the region, it is on a firm footing in the region. In the realm of trade, China is the largest trading partner for most South Asian countries. The cumulative promised investment in the region is around $150 billion. Having enhanced its capabilities in science, technology and innovation (STI), China has also been wooing the region with its advanced and affordable technology which covers a wide range of components including digital, 5G and cyber security.
Moreover, it is also striving to use soft power to attract the countries in the region. More than 10 Confucius Institutes have been operating in South Asia to disseminate a positive understanding of China.
However, the recent economic crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, which have partially been attributed to what I call “investment with Chinese characteristics”, dented its credibility. Booz Allen Hamilton’s characterisation of China’s strategy through the “String of Pearls” is becoming a reality beyond maritime security.
Globally, what is singularly distinctive is the intertwining of geo-political, geo-strategic and geo-economic processes, facilitated particularly by the sophisticated technologies. Given this phenomenon, China’s role in India-Pakistan relations forms an integral part of its macro geopolitical, geo-security, geo-economic strategy.
With a robust economy, coupled with impressive industrial prowess and a key role in the emergence of several multilateral fora such as Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), China is beginning to expand its political, economic, military and cultural might across the world. In such a scenario, given its strategic interests, India began to get closer to the US and its initiative in the formation of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) along with Japan and Australia.
This is viewed by China as a threat to its national interests in Asia and global ambition of consolidating its emergence as a superpower. Since China is likely to remain a key factor in the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan in the years to come, India must evolve a four-pronged strategy.
First, continue to strengthen inclusive economic growth and military capabilities as they mutually reinforce each other. Second, create a favorable ecosystem in the region by forging friendly relations. Third, build robust relations and partner with like-minded democratic countries and strive to promote democratic culture across the world while recognising the imperfections within their own democracies, and endeavor to improve and make them more democratic. Fourth, strive to resolve the border conflict with both countries, however difficult it may be.
This is the best antidote for addressing the conflictual relations among the three countries. This can only be possible when people along with the institutions and the leaders in the three countries, particularly in Pakistan and China, reflect on whether lives are more precious or land, and tread on the path of peace.
