A BALANCING ACT
Türkiye's bid to join BRICS shows it aims to strike a balance
Türkiye's application to join BRICS marks the first time a NATO member has applied to join the group dominated by Russia and China. The BRICS views itself as a counter to the Western-led global order. Türkiye's move to join BRICS signifies the balancing act it is striking in a polarized world order. It is also a step to reduce its dependence on the West.
An Alternate Pole?
Originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the BRICS grouping expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. The group now represents 46 per cent of the world’s population, 29 per cent of the world’s GDP, 43 per cent of oil production and 25 per cent of global exports. Türkiye is one of almost 20 countries that have applied for membership in the bloc. The bloc's New Development Bank, an alternative to the World Bank and IMF, has attracted a growing membership with Algeria, which was recently approved as a member after Uruguay and Bangladesh.
While the BRICS lacks formal structures and enforcement mechanisms, its role is all the more important in an increasingly polarized global order. The Ukraine war elucidated differences between the Global South and the Western-led developed world as many Global South countries and Türkiye refused to join sanctions against Russia and insisted on maintaining a neutral stance. The Gaza war has also revived criticisms of Western double standards as several Western countries displayed unwavering support for Israel despite its relentless war on Gaza. The participation of middle powers like Türkiye could increase the significance of BRICS. Nations like Türkiye also seek a multipolar world order rather than one dominated by superpowers.
India is likely to have a mixed response to Türkiye joining the BRICS. While India could benefit from increased cooperation with Türkiye in areas like trade and energy, it is also cautious about Türkiye's close ties with Pakistan as it plays a key role in the Muslim world. Türkiye supports Pakistan in its Kashmir dispute with India. Given the strained ties, it is not certain whether India will approveTürkiye's membership.
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Turkeys Gamble?
Not surprisingly, Türkiye's bid to join BRICS has raised concerns in Western countries. Located between Europe and Asia, Türkiye's leaning is of vital interest given its geographic location near the Ukraine and Gaza wars. An aspiring EU member, Türkiye, is keen to retain its NATO membership and European aspirations. However, it is equally keen to diversify its alliances and refuses to be boxed into a foreign policy framed by its NATO membership.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is known for his strategy of balancing divergent alliances. However, it has not been all smooth sailing and has caused friction in ties with Western nations. Türkiye's military ties with Western nations were sharply strained over its purchase of the Russian S-400 defence system that was designed to bring down NATO planes. In December 2020, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Türkiye, Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), under Section 231 of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for knowingly engaging in a significant transaction with Rosoboronexport, Russia's main arms export entity, by procuring the S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The sanctions include a ban on all U.S. export licenses and authorizations to SSB and an asset freeze. The U.S.also removed Türkiye from the F-35 jet programme.
Joining BRICS could open new opportunities economically and diplomatically and enable Türkiye to have a foot in every camp. It could help it step into a role as a bridge between East and West that reflects its geographic location between Europe and Asia. On the other hand, it runs the risk of aggravating its tensions with the U.S. There are serious concerns in the U.S. that BRICS Plus is aspiring to create a new world order in which the U.S. dollar would no longer reign supreme.
Geoeconomic Compulsions?
Türkiye's bid to join BRICS is part of its effort to foster diverse trade ties and reduce its dependence on traditional ties with the West.
Given Türkiye'sTürkiye's significant energy reliance on neighbours like Russia, which supplies almost 50 per cent of Türkiye'sTürkiye's natural gas, economic interests play a critical role. China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to connect East Asia with Europe, with Türkiye as a key distribution hub. Türkiye views BRICS as a platform to expand its economic influence, gain new trade opportunities and source of investment, and extend its participation in global supply chains.
The nation’s balancing act is as much a necessity as a choice, given its geographic location amidst multiple conflicts and its economic dependence on external sources for debt finance. Further, by positioning itself as a diplomatic bridge, Türkiye aims to make itself an indispensable power in the global arena. Türkiye has recently engaged in global diplomacy, such as its role in brokering negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The partial export of Ukrainian wheat to feed the global South last year resulted from Turkish diplomacy.
Domestic Political Compulsions
Erdogan has long sought to portray himself as a leader of the Muslim world. Yet, Türkiye's inability to effect a change in Israel's assault on Gaza has weakened Erdogan's standing and stoked hardline Islamic sentiment in the country. Türkiye's move to join BRICS could be a way to distract the public from this and gain more international leverage.
Given Türkiye's consistent commitment to NATO, it is unlikely that its actions signify a move away from its Western allies. Joining BRICS is not necessarily an anti-Western move; India and Brazil have been in the organization from the start. However, it could reflect Türkiye's dissatisfaction with its current equation with NATO, where it often feels sidelined or faces differences with other members over issues such as defence procurement, regional security, and political alignment. Moreover, despite decades of being aligned with Europe and the West, Türkiye has consistently been rejected from joining the EU. Applying to join BRICS could also be a response to this slight.
Assessment
For some time now, especially under Erdogan, Türkiye has been slowly but steadily drifting from the Western camp, trying to develop a stronger independent foreign policy. It is the one NATO member who is most lukewarm to NATO's support of Ukraine and has placed serious obstacles to the expansion of NATO. This move further corroborates this tendency.
Türkiye's move to join BRICS is a way
to hedge its bets and balance its divergent foreign policy ties. Türkiye is determined to maintain a multipolar foreign policy and balance its ties with the East and West in an increasingly polarised global order.
It is also a way to gain
more leverage on the global stage as a diplomatic go-between. Further, its economic reliance on countries like China and Russia makes strengthening its ties with BRICS worthwhile.
