The surge of the Right Wing in The EU. Should we be worried?
“The far right did well but not excellent — let’s not forget these are second-order elections,” said Francesco Nicoli, a visiting fellow at Bruegel think tank. This was reassuring news for many who have seen the rise of the right in the EU for some time now. This expansion was especially significant this year, with gains in Italy, Sweden and now, France.
The economic insecurities, cultural concerns about a wave of illegal immigration and a sense of despondency generated by the grinding war in Ukraine have created a fertile bed for the right wing to grow. It is particularly attracting younger voters disillusioned by traditional political structures and economic instability.
Background
Hard-right parties have power in five EU nations: the Czech Republic, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Croatia. Public anxiety over security has surged in response to high-profile terrorist acts since right-wing parties are frequently seen as adopting stricter positions on law and order and national security. One noteworthy pattern is that, following terror incidents, there is frequently a spike in social anxieties like antisemitism and Islamophobia. These worries can affect political dynamics and voter behaviour, potentially boosting far-right organisations that exploit these feelings. After striking a historic accord, the anti-Islamic firebrand Geert Wilders is poised to become the most right-wing cabinet in recent Dutch history.
According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is leading President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party in France by a wide margin, polling at over 30%.
Head-to-head with the Social Democrats, Alternative for Germany, a party under police observation for its radical ideas, is polling second.
Similarly, the executive branch in Sweden depends on a confidence and supply arrangement with the populist Sweden Democrats, who make up the second-largest party in the legislature.
Voter support for traditional centre-left parties, such as the Democrats and Socialists, has decreased in several EU member states. Voters have shifted to more right-leaning or populist choices because of immigration, economic hardships, and worries about national security. Only four EU members—Germany, Spain, Denmark, and Malta—have left- or centre-left parties in their governments. Nevertheless, they have not done well at the polls lately.
Analysis
Curiously, it is basic needs like housing that influence the political opinions of the voters the most. In a poll, EU city mayors ranked housing as one of the most pressing concerns confronting their communities; apparently, public housing is being occupied by the increasing number of migrants. “For a long time, politicians were happy to ignore the issue because it affected low-income groups that vote with less force, but now it’s affecting people that take note: The offspring of the middle class and even the middle class itself,” stated Sorcha Edwards, secretary-general of Housing Europe, an organisation that represents public, cooperative, and social housing providers. This political “not-in-my-backyardism” has strengthened the argument for a far-right rise, particularly in the main EU member states.
The left has frequently been divided, with several parties vying for the same support bases. Building strong, cohesive administrations can be challenging due to this fragmentation, which has occasionally reduced their efficacy in elections and governing. Edwards continues, “An inflationary environment and [an] increase in mortgage prices that has led to private-sector construction to stagnate have made years of inaction worse.” Working-class people have become disenchanted with centre- and left-wing parties because they believe they have not sufficiently tackled economic inequality or the effects of globalisation. This has been especially evident in areas hit hard by recessions, as right-wing parties have successfully tapped into feelings of disapproval of the status quo.
The inclination of the youth to right-wing populism is especially noticeable in France and Germany. Led by the youthful and media-savvy Jordan Bardella, the National Rally (RN) in France is a prime example of this tendency. According to research, young people in France are driven to the far-right because of its severe attitude toward immigration and law and order, and they feel alienated from established political parties. Economic issues like the cost-of-living problem and high unemployment have exacerbated this feeling, which Bardella and RN have used to win over younger people. In Germany, support for traditionally left-leaning parties like the Greens has declined among young voters in tandem with the emergence of far-right groups. According to reports, the AfD’s emphasis on national pride and critical attitude toward immigration policy appeal to young Germans disenchanted with traditional political choices. A sizable portion of young people identify with the party’s message, which centres on making “Germans proud of being German again” and solving the alleged shortcomings of multicultural policy.
This pattern is not isolated. Young people’s involvement in far-right organisations across Europe reflects a larger disenchantment with conventional left- and centrist-leaning parties. This generational change in political loyalty is significant because it affects the results of the present elections and influences the future political environments that will exist in Europe.
Based on empirical data, every European Parliament election between 1979 and 2019 was second-order. The following traits apply to second-order elections: voters are more likely to support protest parties or parties on the margins of the political system than the typical mainstream parties, and turnout is predicted to be lower than in national elections. The elections for the European Parliament were “second-order” because voters, political parties, and the media thought they were less significant than first-order elections. Consequently, voters frequently use second-order elections to criticise or reward the parties already in power. The second-order elections strategy has yet to be verified for the twelve new EU members (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia).
Expert Marta Lorimer forecast that “the growing number of far-right MEPs will likely have only a limited impact on the EU.” “They do not form a blocking minority.”
Assessment
- Foreign policies could suffer under the far right; the ability to maintain diplomatic relations under closed-off national borders might lead to regressive and present-serving instead of long-term oriented policies, which is exactly what voters are afraid to admit but are at wit’s end to confront.
- The right wing’s poll performance was more about punishing the centre and left parties for their political performance inadequacies rather than radical mass-scale ideological change within the public. This shows that the people’s intention behind wanting change is not to move backwards but to redirect efforts.
- The youth have always expressed their concerns over climate change in politics. However, now that the middle class has moved up to the frontiers of the financial crisis, the former is easily overlooked by comparison. They must remember that their long-term concerns regarding the EU’s climate policies could be compromised if these right-wing parties gain more influence in the European Parliament.
