Alternate quad

ALTERNATE QUAD?

China's ambitions are not about global domination but rather about curtailing U.S. influence in regions like the Asia-Pacific – Eric Lee, Chinese commentator.

Lt Gen GAV Reddy

10 October 2024

A rivalrous new axis comprising China, Russia, Iran and North Korea (CRIK Axis)is emerging amidst global geopolitical flux. The coalition, of late referred to as an Alternate QUAD, is not merely a reaction to the geopolitical landscape but represents a strategic alignment aimed at challenging the established norms of international relations. As these nations deepen their military and economic ties, they are increasingly positioned against the West (USA), utilising platforms like BRICS and joint military exercises to bolster their collective influence. The dynamics of this contest are further complicated by ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and West Asia, which serve to unite these nations against perceived Western hegemony.

The implications of this rivalry extend beyond mere power struggles; they threaten to reshape global governance and challenge the foundations of American dominance in international affairs.

Why the New Axis?

The belief that the emerging Axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRIK) is driven more by a desire to challenge the United States than by ideological congruence can be attributed to several key factors.

The Axis nations are united primarily by their collective opposition to U.S. dominance in global affairs. Analysts highlight that their cooperation is largely pragmatic, aimed at countering what they perceive as a unilateral American worldview that imposes its values and interests on other nations. Despite their cooperation, the member states of the Axis have fundamentally different political systems and long-term objectives. While they share a common critique of Western policies, their alliances are often described as temporary arrangements driven by geopolitical necessity rather than cohesive ideological alignment. This diversity suggests that their collaboration is more about mutual benefit in opposing U.S. interests than a cohesive ideological movement.

The Axis has effectively capitalised on perceived weaknesses within Western democracies, including political turmoil and a tendency toward appeasement. This strategic exploitation allows them to strengthen their ties while undermining U.S. global influence.

Their coordinated efforts to bypass sanctions and engage in military and economic partnerships illustrate a calculated approach to challenge the established order without a unified ideological framework.The New Axis, having found common traction in the Ukrainian and West Asian conflicts, will focus now on the global south, with 80 per cent of the world’s population and 40 per cent of global GDP.

There are three essential components of the alignment among these four nations. Firstly, they are worried about U.S. foreign policy. They reject the idea that America should have a special role in international affairs and dismiss U.S. interpretations of international law, including the notion of a U.S.-defined “rules-based order.”Secondly, Americans compare the group to eccentric conspiracy theorists who live in and describe an alternate reality in their public comments. This is evident in how the four governments demonise U.S. behaviour and goals. Lastly, these four leaders aspire for their countries to become the fulcrum of the international system, bringing a post-American age. However, at the moment, most of their collaboration is bilateral- such as China-Russia diplomatic coordination, military exercises, trade, Iran and North Korea's arms sales to Russia and China’s economic support of North Korea.

Goals of the CRIK Axis

Geopolitical Realignment. The CRIK axis aims to reshape the geopolitical landscape by promoting a multipolar world order where these nations can exert greater influence without reliance on Western powers. By aligning their strategies, they hope to create alternative spheres of influence that challenge existing power structures dominated by the U.S. and its allies.This reflects a strategic alignment among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea that is primarily driven by mutual interests in security and economic cooperation and a desire to reshape global power dynamics in their favour.Each member views the U.S. as a primary obstacle to its national interests and seeks to undermine its dominance in their respective regions. This shared animosity fosters a collaborative framework to counter U.S. policies and military presence.

Mutual Defence and Security Cooperation. The Axis aims to establish a mutual defence pact among its members, enhancing security cooperation against perceived threats. This includes commitments to support one another militarily in case of attacks, thereby solidifying their collective security arrangements in an increasingly hostile international environment. The Axis seeks to enhance military capabilities through technical cooperation. This includes sharing military technology, conducting joint exercises, and providing arms support. Such collaboration not only strengthens their individual military capacities but also counterbalances Western military alliances.

Economic Collaboration and Resource Sharing. Economic interdependence is a crucial aspect of the partnership. The countries are working together to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions through resource sharing, arms trade, and economic cooperation. For instance, North Korea has supplied munitions to Russia, while Iran has provided drones and missiles, creating a mutually beneficial economic relationship.

Impacton GlobalSecurity Dynamics

The CRIK Axis has the potential to impact global security dynamics if it holds together credibly. The outcomes are outlined below.

Erosion of U.S. Influence. By collaborating, these nations aim to reduce American military and diplomatic influence in their respective regions, potentially destabilising established international norms and alliances.

Increased Military Cooperation. Enhanced military ties among the four nations, including joint exercises and technology transfers, directly threaten regional stability. For instance, North Korea's missile capabilities may be bolstered by Russian technology, complicating security calculations for South Korea and Japan. This military collaboration could embolden aggressive postures from these countries, leading to heightened tensions in areas like the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea. Some of this collaboration is already visible in the Ukraine war, with allegations of North Korean and Iranian military supplies reaching Russia and China providing means to fabricate drones.

Support for Proxy Conflicts. The alliance strengthens members' ability to support proxy groups and insurgencies against U.S.-aligned governments. Iran's influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon is likely to grow with backing from Russia and China, while North Korea may feel empowered to escalate its threats against South Korea. This dynamic could lead to more frequent conflicts and instability in multiple regions simultaneously. The most recent example is the induction of the Wagner Group (rechristened the Africa Corps) into the Sahel region of Africa from where France and its western allies have been evicted.

Circumvention of Sanctions. The CRIK axis has developed mechanisms to bypass Western sanctions that have been imposed on its members. By cooperating economically and militarily, they can mitigate the effects of these sanctions, thereby undermining the effectiveness of U.S. foreign policy tools designed to contain them25. This collaboration allows them to sustain their economies and military capabilities despite external pressures.

Potential for a New Multipolar World Order. The formation of this Axis signals a shift towards a multipolar world where power is distributed among various state actors rather than dominated by the U.S. This could lead to the establishment of alternative international norms and rules that challenge existing frameworks, potentially resulting in greater global instability as nations realign their foreign policies in response to this new reality.

Creating Potential Flashpoints

North Korea's increasing military capabilities, bolstered by Russian support, pose a direct threat to South Korea and Japan. Recent missile tests and aggressive rhetoric from Pyongyang indicate a shift away from peaceful unification policies, potentially leading to military confrontations in the region. The possibility of North Korea activating its military against South Korea during a Taiwan contingency adds another layer of tension.

China's assertive stance on Taiwan and its claims in the South China Sea could lead to conflicts involving U.S. interests. The CRIK axis may coordinate efforts to challenge U.S. military presence in these areas, increasing the risk of miscalculations or confrontations between Chinese forces and U.S. allies.

The partnership enhances Iran's ability to support proxy groups across the Middle East, including Hezbollah and Hamas. This could lead to escalated conflicts in Israel and surrounding regions, particularly if Iran feels emboldened by its alliance with Russia and China. Recent evidence suggests that Iranian support for regional proxies has increased, raising concerns about broader regional instability.

The collective nuclear arsenals of the CRIK nations are projected to grow significantly, potentially surpassing that of the United States in a few years. This development raises alarms about nuclear proliferation and the possibility of these nations sharing technology or resources that could destabilise global nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

In reaction to the CRIK axis's activities, Western nations may feel compelled to enhance their military presence in strategic areas such as Eastern Europe and Asia. This could lead to a renewed arms race or military buildups that heighten tensions further. For example, South Korea's consideration of supplying arms to Ukraine reflects a potential shift in its defence posture, which could provoke retaliatory measures from North Korea.

Implications for Indian National Interests

Increased Geopolitical Tensions. The emergence of the CRIK axis contributes to a more volatile geopolitical landscape, particularly in Asia. This volatility complicates India's strategic positioning, especially given its historical ties with Russia and its growing partnership with the U.S. and Western nations. As these nations align against Western influence, India may be caught in a complex web of alliances that could challenge its non-aligned stance and multi-alignment strategy.

Challenges in the Indo-Pacific Region. The military cooperation among CRIK nations in the Indo-Pacific could threaten India's interests in this crucial area. These countries ' joint naval exercises and increased military presence may undermine India's influence in regional security frameworks, such as the Quad (comprising India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia). This situation could lead to a Cold War-style confrontation that detracts from India's strategic autonomy.

Impact on Energy Security.As Iran strengthens its ties with Russia and China, India may face challenges securing energy supplies. The CRIK axis's ability to circumvent sanctions may allow these nations to bolster their energy resources and assert greater control over energy markets. This could lead to increased competition for energy resources that India relies on for its economic growth.

Nuclear Proliferation Concerns. The collective nuclear capabilities of the CRIK nations are projected to grow significantly, potentially surpassing those of the U.S. This development raises alarms about nuclear proliferation in South Asia, where India already faces security challenges from Pakistan and China. A more robust nuclear posture among these nations could compel India to reassess its own nuclear strategy and deterrence capabilities.

Influence on Global Governance Structures. The CRIK axis seeks to reshape global governance structures through platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This alignment could undermine India's influence within these organisations as Russia, China, and Iran work together to promote norms that may not align with Indian interests. Such developments could dilute India's voice on critical global issues like climate change, trade, and security.

The emergence of a new Axis comprising China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea could significantly influence India's military modernisation and defence strategies.These factors necessitate carefully recalibrating India's foreign policy to navigate this complex landscape effectively.

Options for India

Increased Focus on Countering China: The primary driver behind India's military modernisation is the need to address China's growing assertiveness, particularly following border clashes like the one in Galwan Valley. The new Axis may embolden China to adopt a more aggressive posture, prompting India to accelerate its modernisation efforts to enhance its deterrence capabilities along the northern border. This includes reorganising command structures and increasing defence budgets for technology acquisitions, as seen in recent reforms to improve operational readiness against Chinese threats.

Diversification of Defence Partnerships: As India seeks to reduce its historical dependence on Russian arms—exacerbated by Russia's own military challenges in Ukraine—it is likely to deepen partnerships with Western nations, particularly the United States and its allies. This shift will facilitate access to advanced technologies and collaborative defence initiatives, aligning with India's broader strategy of integrating into global defence networks. For instance, recent agreements with the U.S. include initiatives on critical and emerging technologies crucial for enhancing India's military capabilities.

Strategic Realignment in the Indo-Pacific: The new Axis's activities may prompt India to strengthen its role in regional security frameworks like the Quad, which includes the U.S., Japan, and Australia. Enhanced cooperation with these nations will bolster India's maritime capabilities and improve joint operational readiness against potential threats from the Axis countries. This strategic realignment is evident in India's recent military exercises with Quad partners and its focus on developing indigenous defence production capabilities under initiatives like "Make in India" to ensure self-reliance. These influences underscore how the geopolitical dynamics shaped by the new Axis could drive India toward a more proactive and technologically advanced military posture aimed at safeguarding its national interests in an increasingly complex security environment.

What is India’s gain?

While the overall dynamics may pose risks, India could also hope to gain specific advantages from this partnership.

By maintaining relations with the CRIK axis while simultaneously engaging with Western powers, India can strengthen its position as a key player in international diplomacy. This multi-alignment approach allows India to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes and assert its interests without being overly reliant on any single bloc.

India could explore avenues for economic engagement with Iran and Russia, particularly in sectors like energy and defence. Given India's growing energy needs, closer ties with Iran could facilitate access to oil and gas supplies, while collaboration with Russia in defence technology could bolster India's military capabilities.

India's engagement with Russia and Iran could provide leverage in countering Chinese influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region. By fostering relationships with these nations, India may mitigate some of the strategic pressures exerted by China.

The CRIK nations are working to create trade networks that bypass Western sanctions. India could benefit from these alternative supply chains, especially in sectors like technology and defence, where it seeks to reduce dependency on Western suppliers.

Engaging with the CRIK axis allows India to shape norms within organisations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). By participating in these platforms, India can advocate for its interests and counterbalance the influence of China and Russia within these forums.

Prospects for the Future

The next decade is critical. The two conflicting orders, one led by the USA-led West and the other defined by CRIK, are poised for intense competition, which could also spill over into conflict. Great sagacity & wisdom will be needed to avoid wider war, as well as considerable acumen to craft what may, at best, be an uneasy peace. Either way, we must brace for the greatest show in human history.

In the current Cold War, countries like Brazil, South Africa, and India have reflected a new reality with sufficient heft, influence, and strategic autonomy to shape outcomes meaningfully. The salience of these global swing states in the ensuing contest between the two orders will be potent.

An assessment of the relative strengths of the two orders suggests that while the West, particularly the USA, will retain its supremacy, it will lose its hegemony. The USA needs to make strategic adjustments whence it is no longer the undisputed numero-uno. CRIK is not asking for a seat at the table; they are looking to build their table, one with their own rules. Therefore, the world could be headed towards an unusual experiment where a liberal international order sans a hegemon and CRIK learn to co-exist.

# Asia China #Russia #Iran #North Korea #Geopolitics #Security #Diplomacy