A GAMBIT THAT MISFIRED
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s political gamble went horribly wrong.
Dishari Chakrabarti
02.11.2024
The recent parliamentary elections in Japan have not just altered, but dramatically reshaped the country's political landscape, marking a significant setback for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
The snap elections held on October 27, 2024, were a clear reflection of the public's dissatisfaction with the ruling bloc's handling of financial scandals and economic stagnation. The LDP's loss of majority in the lower house of parliament was a direct result of this growing discontent.
Japanese Political Landscape
The LDP has traditionally been the dominant force in Japanese politics since the post-war era, maintaining a reputation for stability and continuity. However, the party has faced increasing scrutiny in recent years due to high-profile financial scandals and perceived economic mismanagement. Ishiba’s predecessor, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, resigned amid public backlash over his failure to address these issues effectively, which left a leadership vacuum.
Ishiba, a longtime party veteran known for his ambition, rose to the challenge, taking office on October 1, 2024, immediately calling for a snap election to consolidate power and rebuild public trust. However, as results came in, it became clear that Ishiba's gamble had backfired.
The election results were devastating for the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito. Exit polls from NHK public television revealed that the coalition secured only 209 seats out of 465 in the lower house, a dramatic drop from its previous majority of 279 seats. This marked the coalition's worst performance since 2009 when the LDP briefly lost power. Meanwhile, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), led by Yoshihiko Noda, saw significant gains, increasing its seat count from 98 to an anticipated 191.
What Went Awry?
Several interconnected issues drove the LDP's decline. One of the main issues was the series of financial scandals that plagued the party. Allegations of unrecorded donations and slush funds among LDP lawmakers severely damaged its public image, sparking outrage and increasing voter discontent. Many citizens saw these financial misdeeds as emblematic of a larger culture of corruption and impunity within the LDP, weakening public trust ahead of the election.
Economic stagnation was another critical factor. Japan's economy, grappling with persistent inflation and stagnation, has presented major challenges for the LDP's policies. Many voters were frustrated with how the government managed these issues, which further contributed to dissatisfaction and frustration with the ruling bloc's leadership.
Ishiba's approach to leadership also impacted the election results. Despite his rapid rise and initial promises of reform, his Cabinet choices were widely criticized for excluding younger, more progressive voices and instead drawing from the party's traditional, established ranks. This alienated a portion of the electorate looking for substantial change, not a return to the status quo. The opposition's consolidated efforts also contributed to the LDP's decline. The CDPJ, under Noda's leadership, positioned itself as a credible alternative by focusing on accountability, reform, and transparency. This message resonated with an electorate disillusioned by the ruling party's handling of scandals and economic woes, and the CDPJ's gains at the polls reflected this sentiment.
Will the Government Survive?
Coalition dynamics present an immediate concern. With only 209 seats, the LDP-Komeito coalition no longer has the support necessary to push through legislation on its own. Ishiba may have to form new alliances with smaller parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) or the Japan Innovation Party. However, both of these parties have expressed reluctance to align with the LDP, which they view as mired in corruption and inefficiency. Without a stable coalition, governance could become increasingly fragmented, complicating the legislative process.
Ishiba’s policy goals are also at risk. He had outlined an ambitious agenda focusing on revitalizing Japan’s rural economy, tackling low birth rates, and enhancing national defence. However, these policy objectives will face substantial hurdles without a secure majority. Analysts believe that the political instability may delay critical reforms or force Ishiba to water down his proposals to gain wider support.
To restore public trust, Ishiba must address the underlying issues that contributed to the LDP's decline: transparency and accountability. The party must prove to voters that it is serious about addressing corruption and managing the country's economic challenges. Political experts suggest this could require internal reforms and a willingness to bring fresh voices into leadership roles.
The results of this election indicate a turning point in Japanese politics, signaling a strong public desire for change. Although Ishiba’s strategy to consolidate power ultimately failed, this outcome provides an opportunity for a renewed focus on transparency and meaningful reform. The emergence of the opposition as a formidable force could usher in a new era of political competition, potentially leading to more diverse perspectives in Japan’s governance.
The election also has implications for Japan's international relations. The LDP's weakened position in parliament may be constrained by Ishiba's approach to foreign policy, particularly regarding the U.S.-Japan alliance and regional security. His ambitious defence reforms, which include calls for a more robust military stance against North Korea and China, may be difficult to implement without broad political support. Similarly, the need for domestic stability could complicate his cautious approach to trade with the United States.
Assessments
As Japan faces domestic challenges and complex geopolitical dynamics in East Asia, Ishiba’s ability to navigate this evolving landscape will be crucial. His success or failure will have ramifications not only for his political career but for Japan’s approach to pressing social and economic issues.
As public disillusionment grows, the political landscape becomes more dynamic, with the opposition positioning itself as a credible alternative. Moving forward, Ishiba must navigate coalition politics and demonstrate a commitment to reform if he hopes to regain public trust.
At this critical juncture, Japan’s ability to address domestic and international challenges will require careful negotiation and collaboration across party lines. As the country faces economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and demands for accountability, the coming months will be pivotal in shaping Japan’s political trajectory.
|
A SHOCK! Opinion polls predicted the government's defeat, but still, the outcome was shocking. Bill Emmott Japan is a remarkably safe, stable and comfortable place, but it sits in a dangerous part of the world, right next to China, North Korea and Russia. That makes it important to European allies and, above all, to its closest ally, the United States, as a liberal leader countering China and Russia in Asia. Yet its stability cannot be taken for granted. Even Japanese voters can get angry and disillusioned, as they showed in a shock and destabilising result in Sunday's general election. The country's long-ruling conservative coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the election, while the opposition parties showed new energy and coherence. This wasn't supposed to happen: a new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who had made a career out of being a maverick outsider, called a snap election to exploit his apparent personal popularity. Having been in office for less than a month, Japanese commentators are comparing him insultingly with Britain's Liz Truss, the Conservative who in 2022 famously survived for just 45 days as prime minister. A Game of Numbers The parliamentary arithmetic is difficult. In the 465-seat House of Representatives, a party or coalition needs 233 for a simple majority, but Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party fell in the election to just 191 seats, while its coalition partner since 2012, Komeito, fell to 24, giving them a combined total of just 215, way down on the 279 the coalition held before the vote. There are 12 independents, many of whom were kicked out from the LDP over financial scandals, but even if all those were readmitted, the coalition would fall short. Under Japanese law, a special session of parliament must be held within 30 days after an election to choose a new prime minister and hence government, although the vote is expected to be scheduled sooner, on November 11th. So Ishiba now has less than two weeks to persuade one of the other small parties to support him in that vote. If he fails to win the vote, an opposition leader may be able to cobble together an interim government, though that too looks a tall order. The likely outcome, whatever happens on November 11th, is a fresh set of elections in the first half of 2025. At the latest, this might coincide with elections scheduled for the House of Councillors, Japan's less powerful upper house of parliament, by July at the latest. Lesson for Democracies In truth, this is the sign of a healthy democracy, but it is an election result that holds lessons for other rich countries. It also leaves a key American security ally lacking a government just ahead of America's own, rather momentous, election. Japanese governments are normally formed within hours or, at most, days, but forming this one could take weeks or months. The big lesson for other rich countries of Japan's political earthquake is that inflation matters more to voters than it does to many economists. For more than three decades, the Japanese have become used to stable or even falling prices, a deflationary trend that reflected economic stagnation but at least made things predictable for ordinary citizens. Their incomes were depressed, but prices were dependably low. Two years ago, following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, this changed. To economists, the inflation Japan has experienced since 2022 has looked moderate, or even welcome, given that high energy prices and a falling currency also appeared to reflect a new corporate dynamism. Wages started to rise faster, too. But they were outpaced by prices. People felt poorer. Most importantly, for a crucial block of long-time supporters of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, incomes did not move at all: nearly 30% of the Japanese population is now over the age of 65, of whom most depend on pensions, which have not kept pace with inflation. This is a lesson from the 1970s that many had forgotten: inflation is especially cruel to those on fixed incomes. Older voters are likelier to turn out to vote than younger ones, and they can get angry, too. This concern about inflation coincided with financial scandals in the Liberal Democratic Party: not surprisingly, many voters concluded that the ruling party was doing little to help them while pocketing money for itself. This conservative party, essentially a Japanese equivalent of Italy's Christian Democrats, has ruled Japan ever since 1955, except for two short periods in the early 1990s and in 2009-12. It had shrugged off countless numbers of financial scandals in the past. But this time, the blend of scandal and inflation has proved its undoing. The Road Ahead The question, as always after political earthquakes, is whether the old conservative government can now rebuild itself and repair its image or whether this will be the start of a more sustainable change. The Liberal Democratic Party remains the largest party in parliament but now faces a difficult choice. It can try to soldier on under its current leader, for want of anything better, or — probably once he has failed to form a stable government — get rid of him and consider switching to one of the more obvious "change" candidates who lost out to him in the LDP's September leadership election: Sanae Takaichi, a right-winger who would offer herself as Japan's first female prime minister, or Shinjiro Koizumi, son of the popular Junichiro Koizumi who was prime minister in 2001-06, and who at just 43 years old would stand to be Japan's youngest postwar prime minister (the previous youngest was Shinzo Abe at 52 years old in 2006) and thus to represent a new generation. This matters to Europe and America for two main reasons. First, western efforts to deter China from invading Taiwan depend critically on Japan's plans to double its defence spending by 2027. The financing of that build-up will be harder without a stable government majority. There is a broad cross-party consensus that Japan's national security requires such a defence build-up, but no consensus about how to pay for it. Under Donald, Europe will need a dependable and resolute Japanese partner in resisting American economic aggression, but it might not get one. |
