GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
An Indo-Russian Perspective
Roshini Raj
08.11.2024
The United Nations’ recent Hunger Hotspots report casts a stark spotlight on escalating acute food insecurity in 22 countries, driven by conflict, economic crises, and intensifying climate shocks—including the looming La Niña phenomenon. Without prompt intervention, rising hunger and disrupted rainfall patterns threaten to devastate agricultural productivity, pushing hundreds of thousands toward famine. Countries like Chad, Lebanon, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nigeria, Syria, and Yemen face particularly severe threats. At the same time, Kenya, Lesotho, Namibia, and Niger have newly joined the list of acute hunger hotspots, suffering from the compounded impacts of climate extremes, conflict, and economic instability.
Malnutrition remains a pervasive global challenge, manifesting in undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. In 2022, 2.5 billion adults were classified as overweight, with 890 million facing obesity, while 390 million were underweight. Among children under five, approximately 149 million were stunted, and 45 million wasted. Undernutrition remains implicated in nearly half of all child mortality in low- and middle-income countries, with profound social, economic, and developmental repercussions that ripple across communities and nations.
Addressing these interconnected issues is critical to building a resilient, equitable global food system.
Amid these challenges, India and Russia have embarked on a strategic partnership, leveraging their agricultural strengths and technological expertise to confront food security issues through multifaceted collaboration. This partnership underscores the necessity of global alliances to address the complex, intersecting challenges that threaten food security on an unprecedented scale.
Growing Demand
As the global population marches toward an estimated 10 billion by 2050, food production must expand by 60 per cent despite formidable climate pressures. The food sector, responsible for 30 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, demands a rapid and sustainable transformation to mitigate environmental impacts while meeting the rising demand. Critical to global food security, smallholder farmers must overcome considerable obstacles in accessing financing, advanced technologies, and knowledge to contribute to this transition effectively.
At the recent World Bank Group Annual Meetings, experts underscored the food sector's vast economic and developmental potential, highlighting that redirecting just 10 per cent of the $650 billion currently spent on environmentally harmful agricultural subsidies could yield substantial benefits. This reallocation could reduce emissions by 40 per cent, lower food prices, and restore farmland to natural habitats, empowering smallholder farmers and fostering a more resilient, sustainable food system.
Indo-Russia Agricultural Partnership
In the face of mounting global challenges, the Indo-Russian partnership has emerged as a strategic alliance with significant potential to address food security issues through innovations in agricultural and resource management. With disruptions in supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and climate pressures reshaping the global food landscape, India and Russia are increasingly collaborating on several fronts to secure a more resilient and sustainable agricultural future.
As one of the world’s largest wheat exporters and a significant producer of grains like barley and corn, Moscow is a crucial supplier to India, particularly in deficit years. India, as the second-largest consumer of wheat globally, relies on Russian wheat and pulses like lentils and peas to meet its domestic needs. Meanwhile, India exports fruits, vegetables, and processed foods to Russia, contributing to a balanced bilateral trade. Recognising mutual food security needs, both nations have diversified imports and secured agricultural trade routes to stabilise their supply chains amid global uncertainties.
India also depends on Russian fertilisers, particularly potash, to boost its agricultural productivity.
Both countries face climate-related challenges in food production—India’s monsoon variability and Russia’s harsh winters—which make cooperation in climate-resilient agriculture essential.
They share agricultural technologies to improve pest control, crop yields, and food storage capabilities.
Economic sanctions on Russia, however, have posed challenges for agricultural exports, impacting India’s import flow, yet strategic stockpiling of grains like wheat and rice has helped buffer India’s food security. Additionally, regular bilateral dialogues on agricultural policies and India’s investments in Russian agriculture (e.g., soybeans and sunflowers) further enhance their commitment to a secure and resilient food system.
As a global agricultural powerhouse with substantial wheat, barley, and corn production, Russia provides a buffer against global food shortages through its surplus exports. India benefits from Russia's agricultural strength, gaining access to essential grains that supplement its strategic reserves. This grain import channel enhances India's food security, especially during global supply chain disruption.
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“We live in a world full of conflict, and climate change has come in a big way. We all know the impact of climate change will adversely affect India in the coming days. Russia is one of the biggest producers of wheat. Wheat is also a staple food for the Indians and a very sensitive crop. It is temperature-sensitive. We all know that when the wheat grows, at the stage at which the pod fills with the grain, the temperature, if it goes awry, then the productivity decreases; our production will sharply decline in a year when such a thing happens. Russians have been supplying wheat in the past, but because our crops have been very good, we are self-sufficient in wheat, so we are not looking forward to the import market. But if such an eventuality happens, then no country can be better than banking on Russia for this. Certain opportunities exist, and we should seize them. With increasing climate change, more agricultural areas in Russia may be amenable to growing agriculture. Perhaps that can be considered an alternative to meeting our country's food security needs.” S.K. Patnaik, the former Agriculture Secretary and Advisor to the Governor of West Bengal |
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“I must say that the agriculture sector is one of the most prospective for different reasons. One is the rising demand in India for food security and supplies. Another one is that Russia continues its emergence and development as a major supplier of food, fertilisers, and other agricultural commodities. So here we complement each other in terms of our demands and interests. And last but notleast, many sectors are now severely affected by the geopolitical situation, sanctions, and politicisation". Dr. Ivan Timofeev, Russian International Affairs Council Director General |
Global Fertiliser Security
A lesser-known fact, but equally critical to food security, is that of Fertiliser Security, particularly amid the geopolitical impacts of events like the Ukraine conflict, which has disrupted global supply chains. Russia, a leading producer of essential fertilisers like nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, plays a vital role in stabilising the global fertiliser supply. As a major consumer of fertilisers, it depends heavily on imports to support its agriculture sector, making it vulnerable to price volatility and supply shocks.
The Indo-Russian partnership offers a promising pathway toward enhanced fertiliser security. Through long-term supply agreements, India and Russia can stabilise trade channels and reduce dependency on fluctuating global markets. Joint ventures in developing green ammonia and eco-friendly fertilisers could pave the way for a more sustainable future. In contrast, collaborative research into efficient, resilient fertilisers can serve both nations’ agricultural demands. Such initiatives fortify their agricultural sectors but contribute to a broader, more reliable global fertiliser supply chain.
Technology Driven Practises
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to transform agriculture by enhancing resource efficiency, improving crop yields, and reducing environmental impact. With Russia's technological capabilities and India's expansive agricultural sector, the two nations can create powerful AI-driven platforms to support precision agriculture.
These platforms can help farmers make data-informed decisions, predict weather patterns, determine optimal sowing times, and identify crop diseases early. Joint research initiatives can focus on AI algorithms specifically tailored for local crops, soil conditions, and environmental variables unique to each country, further maximising the impact. By promoting training programs in AI technologies for farmers, India and Russia can build a more sustainable agricultural ecosystem, advancing productivity while addressing environmental concerns.
Solar-powered mobile farming solutions present a promising innovation. This concept involves using mobile, solar-powered units that support various farming needs, including irrigation, crop monitoring, and cold storage. These mobile units can be deployed in remote, rural areas where access to conventional energy sources is limited, thereby enhancing productivity and reducing energy dependence.
Russia’s advances in solar and mobile infrastructure and India's experience in large-scale solar projects create a strong foundation for collaborative efforts in this area. Through initiatives like the National Solar Mission, India has laid the groundwork for widespread solar adoption, which can be integrated into farming practices with Russia’s technical support. Together, the two countries can drive forward climate-resilient and sustainable farming practices by enabling energy-efficient, mobile farming solutions that benefit both remote communities and the environment.
Satellite technology provides precise, real-time insights into crop health, soil moisture, and land use patterns. Both India and Russia have advanced satellite programs—such as India’s ISRO Earth observation satellites and Russia’s Meteor series—that can be harnessed for agricultural monitoring and strategic planning.In a cooperative framework, India and Russia could share satellite data to monitor critical agricultural zones, forecast crop yields, and track water resources. These efforts can be further enhanced by integrating satellite data with AI analytics, creating a comprehensive, data-rich system for addressing food security issues. This collaboration could extend to assessing the impact of climate change on arable land, combating desertification, and improving soil health across both nations. By leveraging satellite technology, India and Russia can build a robust platform for informed decision-making and sustainable agricultural development.
Challenges to Food Security
Food security diversification strengthens India's resilience against trade disruptions caused by conflicts, sanctions, or climate-related disasters in other food-producing regions. Russia’s position as a major grain supplier provides India with stability, especially during periods of domestic shortfall. This can buffer against potential global food price volatility, enhancing both nations' food security.
Russia's growing exports to India in agriculture and fertilisers could be seen as a soft power tool. However, the geopolitical implications of Western sanctions on Russia could threaten the continuity of agricultural exports. Any disruption in these exports, particularly wheat and fertilisers, could destabilise India’s domestic agricultural output, leading to potential food shortages.
Given that a significant portion of India’s food imports come through global shipping routes, any instability in these routes—whether due to military conflicts or sanctions—could compromise India's food security. For Russia, exporting food items is a major economic pillar, and disruptions in these channels could have broader economic implications.
India’s dependence on Russian fertilisers, particularly potash, underscores a vulnerability in its agricultural production system. A breakdown in fertiliser supplies from Russia due to political instability or sanctions could disrupt India’s crop yields, negatively impacting food security. In a worst-case scenario, this could lead to food price hikes, domestic unrest, or political instability in India.
Russia's food security challenges, such as rural depopulation, climate change effects, and domestic demand growth, could affect its ability to maintain stable food production for export. If Russia faces internal food shortages, it may prioritise its own population’s needs over exports, which would disrupt India’s supply of wheat and other food products to India.
Both India and Russia are highly vulnerable to climate-related agricultural disruptions, which could have serious security implications. India's food security is increasingly affected by unpredictable monsoons, droughts, and heatwaves. Similarly, Russia's agriculture is challenged by extreme cold temperatures and changing weather patterns. The ability of both countries to jointly manage and adapt to climate challenges through technology sharing and joint agricultural projects can be a cornerstone of long-term food security and economic stability.
The evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly in light of rising tensions between Russia and the West, could push Russia closer to India as a counterbalance to Western influence. Strengthening food security ties could be part of a larger strategy to ensure long-term stability and cooperation. However, any shifts in alliances could affect food trade, necessitating flexible, diversified supply chains to mitigate potential risks.
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“We are engaged now in the largest agricultural experiment in history. We're throwing together different species that have never lived together before, and they're going to be some surprises. I don't think they're going to be positive surprises, and again, when you look at projections of crop yields or food production for the future, there are a number of other things we don't count into the mix. We don't count into the mix soil degradation or soil loss. The African Union is saying that by 2050, perhaps half of the cropland in Africa will be unusable. That's their word "unusable", and it will impact production. We have a water crisis; 21 of the major aquifers in the world are being depleted faster than they're being replenished. We have conflict, and of course, food insecurity causes conflict, and conflict causes food insecurity, so there are a number of other headwinds facing us that I think add up to making the situation somewhat worse, unfortunately”. Cary Fowler, Special Envoy for Global Food Security, The U.S. Department of State |
Key Takeaways
The Indo-Russian partnership in food security is set to become a cornerstone of their bilateral relationship.
By investing in innovative technologies and sustainable practices, both nations can ensure a stable and secure agricultural future for themselves and the world.
As global challenges intensify, collaborative efforts in food security will be pivotal in shaping a resilient and sustainable future.
References
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update
https://www.synergiafoundation.org/insights/analyses-assessments/new-face-food-security
https://www.synergiafoundation.org/insights/analyses-assessments/beyond-just-food-security
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1156321
https://www.fightfoodcrises.net/sites/default/files/resource/file/HH_Nov24-May24_FINAL.pdf
