A single live debate performance sank the Biden re-election ship almost overnight, elevating Kamala Harris into the hot seat.
President Biden’s decision to step back from the presidential race, albeit most reluctantly, has propelled his VP, Kamala Harris, into the centre stage as the Democratic party nominee.
Even more surprising has been her rise in recent polls across crucial battleground states, suggesting that she may be the wildcard in the upcoming election. The dynamics of the race have shifted quickly, and Vice President Kamala Harris does not look any more like a lame-duck competitor. While this may have cheered up the Democratic Party ranks, there has also been an audible sigh of relief globally as many countries, including the EU, are apprehensive of Trump’s Make America Great Again.
Background
Historically, American presidential elections are decided by a handful of swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Latest polls indicate that Harris is gaining momentum in several of these states, often surpassing or closing the gap with former President Donald Trump. Her ability to perform well in these battlegrounds could be the decisive factor in the election.
Arizona has emerged as one of the most competitive states in the 2024 race. When Harris entered the race, she trailed Trump 7 points in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average. However, she has since narrowed the gap to just 0.7 points. In a head-to-head matchup, Harris now leads Trump by 2 points, a significant shift from earlier in the campaign. Additionally, when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are factored in, Harris’s lead grows to 4 points. This trend is echoed in other polls, with HighGround Public Affairs showing her ahead by almost 3 points and the Trafalgar Group’s poll, a right-leaning source, indicating only a 1-point deficit.
Georgia, a state that has swung between Republican and Democratic control in recent years, shows a similar pattern of tightening polls. Initially, Trump held a 2-point lead over Harris in The Hill/DDHQ polling average, but recent surveys show the race becoming increasingly competitive. A Cook Political Report poll found Harris and Trump tied at 48 per cent, a notable shift from earlier polls where Trump led Biden by 3 points. The AARP poll showed Trump leading Harris by 2 points when Kennedy was included in the race, highlighting the influence of third-party candidates. Harris’s ability to connect with independents and improve her favourability rating, areas where Biden struggled, has been crucial in narrowing the gap in Georgia.
Michigan has consistently been a cornerstone of the Democratic “blue wall” and is essential to any path to victory for Harris. Recent polls show she has a slight edge over Trump in the state. The Hill/DDHQ polling average places her 2 points ahead, a reversal from earlier polls where Biden was trailing. The Cook Political Report also found that Harris outperformed Biden’s previous polling in Michigan, leading Trump by 3 points. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump. While still within the margin of error, these numbers represent a significant improvement over Biden’s past performance in Michigan.
Although Nevada has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, it remains a battleground state due to its history of close elections. Harris’s entry into the race has tightened the contest, with polls showing a much closer race than when Biden was the candidate. While polling data for Nevada is limited, the available surveys suggest that the state could be highly competitive in the general election. Though small, the state’s six electoral votes could prove decisive in a close election.
Harris’s performance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two other critical swing states, has encouraged Democrats. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris leads Trump by 4 points in both states, mirroring her lead in Michigan. As with Michigan, Harris’s gains in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin highlight her appeal in the Midwest, which will be decisive in the 2024 election.
Analysis
Kamala Harris’s recent surge in key swing states has significant implications for the 2024 election. Her improved polling performance not only increases her chances of winning the presidency but also has a ripple effect on other races, particularly in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Control of the Senate, which is currently divided, could hinge on the outcome in several battleground states where Harris is performing well. Similarly, the fight for the House majority, where every seat is up for grabs, could be influenced by her presence at the top of the ticket. The broader Democratic strategy in 2024 may well depend on Harris’s ability to galvanize voters and drive turnout in these critical races.
In addition to her electoral prospects, Harris has also reinvigorated the Democratic base. Since officially launching her campaign, she has garnered strong support from key demographics, including young voters, people of colour, and women. Her decision to select Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has further energized the party, signalling a commitment to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party while maintaining broad appeal. Walz’s experience and moderate stance could help balance the ticket and attract undecided voters in swing states. This strategic choice underscores Harris’s efforts to build a coalition capable of winning in November.
However, Harris faces significant challenges as she seeks to solidify her lead. The Biden administration’s support for Israel during the Gaza conflict has drawn criticism from some quarters, particularly in Michigan, which has a large Arab American population. Additionally, Harris must contend with relentless attacks from Trump and his running mate, JD Vance. Trump has been particularly aggressive in his rhetoric, questioning Harris’s intelligence and qualifications. Her resilience in the face of these challenges will be tested as the campaign heats up.
The next few months will be crucial for Kamala Harris as she seeks to maintain her momentum and build on her gains in key swing states. The political landscape can shift rapidly, as evidenced by the past few weeks, and both candidates will need to navigate a complex and volatile electoral environment. Harris’s ability to connect with voters, address the concerns of key demographics, and counter Trump’s attacks will be critical to her success.
As the election draws closer, the battleground states will continue to be the primary focus for both campaigns. While Harris’s recent rise in the polls is encouraging for Democrats, the race remains highly competitive, and the outcome is far from certain. The first live debate is scheduled for September 10th, and if Harris must convince the doubters in her constituency, her performance must be above par.
Assessment
- Kamala Harris’s candidacy represents a dynamic and evolving challenge in the 2024 presidential election. Her rise in the swing states, particularly in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, suggests that she is well-positioned to compete against Trump.
- However, the road to the White House is fraught with obstacles, and Harris will need to navigate them carefully to secure victory. After all, polls can sometimes go horribly wrong, as we saw recently in India.
- Notwithstanding who wins, the race promises to be one of the most closely watched and contested in recent history. The outcome will not only shape the future of the presidency but also the direction of the United States for years to come. Hopefully, the transition will be peaceful and democratic and devoid of the unruly exhibition of right-wing madness put on show at the Capitol last time.
