France Goes Right?

Macron’s Gamble Backfires as the Far Right is poised to gain unprecedented political control.

In a dramatic twist, the far-right National Rally (RN) party, spearheaded by Marine Le Pen, has surged in the first round of the French parliamentary elections, capturing an unprecedented 33% of the vote. This landmark outcome has sent ripples through the French political sphere, raising pressing questions about the country’s future trajectory.

Background

President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections three years ahead of schedule was a calculated risk intended to stymie the rise of the far-right and secure a governing majority for his centrist Ensemble Alliance. However, this strategy has dramatically misfired; the Ensemble Alliance lagged in third place with a mere 21 per cent, even behind the left-wing New Popular Front, which secured 28 per cent.

Macron’s move was not without rationale. Facing growing dissatisfaction among the populace, he sought to consolidate his power and implement reforms before the looming challenge from the far-right became too overwhelming. Yet, the outcome of the elections indicates a profound miscalculation. Clearly, the far right is more deeply entrenched in France today than in the recent past, and the snap elections have opened the doors to them. Interestingly, it also gives a peephole view of the depth of discontent within French society.

Analysis

The National Rally’s recent surge in the French parliamentary elections is not an overnight phenomenon. It culminates several strategic moves and broader societal trends on which the party has laboured. Under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, the National Rally has significantly rebranded itself, adopting a much softer image and distancing itself from its more extreme variants to appeal to a broader spectrum of voters.

Economic and social discontent has also been crucial to the National Rally’s success. The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities and heightened fears about the future. Rising unemployment, particularly in rural and economically marginalised areas, has created fertile ground for the National Rally’s message. The party’s focus on immigration, security, and national identity resonates with voters who feel neglected and marginalised by the current system.

Macron’s policies have further fuelled the rise of far-right. Often perceived as favouring business interests, Macron’s administration has implemented significant economic reforms that critics argue disproportionately benefit the wealthy, leaving behind the working class and rural communities. This perception of neglect has generated resentment among a growing segment of the population.

The weakening of traditional centre-right and centre-left parties has also contributed significantly to the National Rally’s ascendancy. These parties have struggled to present compelling alternatives, resulting in political fragmentation. As a result, many voters have turned to the National Rally, viewing it as a viable option in the absence of strong traditional parties.

Social media has played a critical role in amplifying the far-right’s message. Platforms like Facebook and Twitter have allowed the National Rally to reach a broader audience, bypassing traditional media gatekeepers. This has enabled the party to spread its message more effectively and mobilise support among younger voters.

However, in response to the rise of the far-right, traditional centre-right and centre-left parties have formed a “Republican Front in the second round of elections. This strategy involves rallying behind the highest-placed candidate to defeat the far-right in the runoff. It was instrumental in blocking Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, from winning the presidency in 2002.

Despite its historical success, the effectiveness of this tactic is increasingly uncertain. Some of Macron’s allies have refused to step down in favour of left-wing candidates, and Macron himself has not provided clear guidance on the strategy. This lack of cohesion within centrist and left-wing factions may undermine their ability to present a united front against the far right. Moreover, the political landscape has evolved, and the strategy’s efficacy is now questioned.

Several potential outcomes could emerge in the second round of the elections. One possibility is the formation of a far-right government. The focus on national preference and protectionist economic policies might lead to increased tensions within the European Union and with other international partners.

Another scenario is a hung parliament, where no single party secures a clear majority. This outcome would likely lead to political instability and complicate the legislative process. Macron’s ability to govern effectively would be severely hampered, increasing the likelihood of further snap elections.

A third possibility is a strengthened Republican Front. If the centre-right and centre-left parties manage to coalesce effectively against the National Rally, France might avoid a far-right government. However, achieving this would require unprecedented cooperation and compromise among the traditional parties, historically divided on many issues.

The National Rally’s potential rise to power significantly impacts France’s foreign and economic policies. A key element of the National Rally’s platform is the concept of “national preference,” which prioritises French citizens over immigrants in areas such as jobs, housing, and welfare. However, France’s Constitutional Council has deemed this proposal unconstitutional, presenting considerable legal obstacles to its implementation.

Internationally, the National Rally has been vocal in its criticism of France’s participation in the European Union (EU) and NATO. Should Marine Le Pen lead the government, there would likely be efforts to renegotiate France’s relationship with the EU, possibly even holding a referendum on EU membership. Such actions could destabilise the European project and reduce France’s influence on the global stage.

Economically, the National Rally’s policies are expected to be protectionist, strongly emphasising safeguarding French industries and jobs. While this approach might be popular among domestic workers, it could lead to conflicts with France’s EU partners and other trading partners, potentially resulting in long-term harm to the French economy.